Daily Key Short Term Technical Levels Fri 17 Nov 2017

FX –  Mix bag with resurgence of EUR & JPY strength against USD

• EUR/USD – The pair has managed to dip down as expected as it shaped the minor corrective decline but fell short of the short-term support/target of 1.1725/1705 (only printed a low of  1.1756 in yesterday, 15 Nov European session). Technical elements now have turned bullish such as the hourly Stochastic oscillator has flashed a bullish divergence signal coupled with the 4 hour Stochastic that has just reversed up from its oversold region. In addition, yesterday’s slide in price action has managed to stall right at pull-back support of a former minor ascending channel resistance from 07 Nov 2017 that has been broken to the upside on Tues, 14 Nov 2017. Therefore, the minor degree bullish impulsive wave sequence in place since 07 Nov 2017 is likely to have resumed, turn bullish above 1.1780 key short-term support (former minor swing high area of 16 Nov seen in the start of yesterday U.S. session +  close to the 61.% Fibonacci retracement of the current rally from yesterday, 16 Nov U.S. session low to today, Asian session current intraday high) for a further potential push up to test the intermediate resistance at 1.1880 follow by 1.1945/1990 (0.618/0.764 Fibonacci projection of the up move from 07 Nov 2017 low to 15 Nov 2017 high projected from yesterday’s low of 1.1756 + medium-term swing high area of 19/20 Sep 2017).
• GBP/USD – Pushed up as expected within the sideways rang configuration in place since 06 Oct 2017 low. Hit the first short-term resistance/target of 1.3230. Maintain bullish bias with a tightened key short-term support now at 1.3180 (yesterday, 16 Nov U.S. session low + minor ascending trendline from 13 Nov 2017 low) for a further potential push up to test the sideways configuration range upper limit/resistance of 1.3300/3325.
• AUD/USD – Still hovering below the predefined 0.7625 key short-term resistance. Current price action is consolidating within a bearish continuation “Pennant” configuration and right now 0.7580 (lower limit of the “Pennant”) needs to be broken down to increase the probability for the start  of another potential downleg to target the 0.7520/0.7500 key medium-term support (lower boundary of the descending channel from 08 Sep 2017 high + major ascending trendline from Jan 2016 low + Fibonacci projection cluster).
• NZD/USD – No change, 0.6905/6919 key short-term resistance for a further potential push down to retest the 27 Oct 2017 swing low area of 0.6820 before targeting the next intermediate support of  0.6745/6720 (lower boundary of a minor descending channel from 17 Oct 2017 high + Fibonacci projection cluster).
• USD/JPY – Recall that we have turned neutral yesterday due to a risk of a minor corrective rebound/consolidation where the pair has indeed shaped a push up to print a high of 113.33 in yesterday, 16 Nov European session (just shy of the upper neutrality limit of 113.45 as per highlighted in the previous report).  Technical elements have now turned bearish with a new marginal lower low of 112.36 (current intraday low in today Asian session). It is likely that the minor degree bearish impulsive wave sequence has resumed, key short-term resistance now at 113.30 for a further potential push down towards the next intermediate support at 111.70 (medium-term swing low area of 25 Sep/13 Oct 2017 + 1.382   Fibonacci projection of the on-going decline from 06 Nov 2017 high).

 Commodities – Further potential downleg stll intact for WTI

• Gold – No change, continued to churn within a sideways range configuration in place since 27 Oct 2017 low. Maintain neutrality stance between 1290 & 1265.
• WTI Crude (Jan 2018) – No change, maintain bearish bias below 56.40/65 key short-term resistance (former minor swing low areas of 09/14 Nov 2017) for a further potential push down towards the next intermediate supports at 54.00 follow by 52.82/70 next (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 06 Oct 2017 low to 09 Nov 2017 high).

Stock Indices (CFD) – The risk of a further corrective decline still lingers

• US SP 500 – Penetrated above 2473/80 key short-term resistance that has invalidated the direct drop scenario. However, there are still not enough technical elements to validate the start of new bullish impulsive wave sequence at this juncture; yesterday’s cash market volume on the S&P 500 is less than the prior 3 days average volume & the two major cyclical sectors (Industrials & Financials with a combined weightage of 24% in the S&P 500) have continued to underperform the S&P 500 based on their respective relative strength analyses. Prefer to turn neutral now between 2590 (yesterday high + minor range top in place since 10 Nov 2017) & 2565. A clear break below 2565 shall reinforce the start of another potential minor degree bearish impulsive wave sequence to target the next intermediate support at 2544.
• Japan 225 – Broke above the 22425 tightened key short-term resistance but yesterday’s rally stalled right below the lower limit of a key medium-term resistance of 22800 (printed a current intraday high of 22760 in today Asian session, see weekly technical outlook) & also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 09 Nov 2017 high to 15 Nov 2017 low). In addition, the direct correlated USD/JPY remains weak. Thus, no conviction of a recovery at this juncture. Maintain bearish bias below 22800 resistance for a potential drop to retest 15 Nov 2017 swing low of 21860 before targeting the next intermediate support at 21650/600
• Hong Kong 50 – Broke above the 29110/130 tightened key short-term resistance and pushed back up to retest the 29300/315 key medium-term resistance (see weekly technical outlook). Interestingly, it has formed an hourly bearish “Spinning Top” candlestick in today Asian session, thus no conviction of a recovery at this juncture. Maintain bearish bias below 29300/315 key medium-term resistance for a potential push down to retest 28880 minor swing low area of 15 Nov 2017.
• Australia 200 – Challenged the 5970 tightened key short-term resistance and retreated from it (printed a high of 5985 in yesterday, 16 Nov U.S session. Maintain bearish bias and tolerate the excess to 5985 and a break below 5950 (minor ascending trendline from 15 Nov 2017 low) shall increase the probability for a further drop towards the 5905/5900 intermediate support (minor swing low area of 31 Oct 2017 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of recent up move from 04 Oct 2017 to 09 Nov 2017 high).
• Germany 30 – Pushed up but remained below the 13110 tightened key short-term resistance. No change, maintain bearish bias for a potential reversal to retest 12860 minor swing low area of 15 Nov 2017 before targeting the next support at 12720/700 (Fibonacci cluster).            

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform

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