Daily Key Short Term Technical Levels Fri 10 Nov 2017

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By :  ,  Financial Analyst

FX –  Further potential USD weakness in EUR & JPY

  • EUR/USD – Our earlier “suspicion” of upside revival for this pair (USD weakness) has verified through the break of the 1.1620 upper limit of the neutrality range as per highlighted yesterday. Turn bullish now above 1.1600 key short-term support (yesterday, 09 Nov  U.S. session low + minor ascending trendline from 07 Nov 2017 low) for a further potential push up towards the medium-term upside trigger level of 1.1690/1705 (former medium-term range support from 17 Aug/06 Oct 2017 + minor swing high of 03 Nov 2017 + medium-term in the first step + upper boundary of the medium-term descending channel from 08 Sep 2017 high) in the first step.
  • GBP/USD - Still evolving within a choppy range environment. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 1.3030  & 1.3325 (minor range configuration in place since 06 Oct 2017 low).
  • AUD/USD – No change, still trapped in a minor range environment since 27 Oct 2017. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 0.7625 & 0.7730 (02 Nov 2017 minor swing high + upper boundary of a medium-term descending channel from 21 Sep 2017 high) also due to USD weakness seen in EUR.
  • NZD/USD -  Still trading below 0.6690/0.7015 key short-term resistance but 0.6880 (minor swing low of 06 Nov 2017 + minor ascending trendline from 27 Oct 2017 low) needs to be broken down to trigger a bearish breakdown of this on-going range environment in place since 27 Oct 2017 for the start of another potential downleg to target next intermediate support coming in at 0.6745/6720 (lower boundary of a minor descending channel from 17 Oct 2017 high + Fibonacci projection cluster). Maintain neutrality stance.
  • USD/JPY – Drop in progress as expected and almost hit the short-term support/target of 113.00 (printed a low of 113.09 in yesterday, 09 Nov U.S. session).  No change maintain bearish bias with a tightened key short-term resistance at 114.07 (minor swing high area of 09 Nov 2017 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current decline from 06 Nov high to yesterday’s low) for potential push down to test 113.00 and below it opens up scope for further decline towards the next support at 112.90/70 (medium-term swing low area of 13 Oct 2017 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 08 Sep 2017 low to 06 Nov 2017 high).

Commodities – WTI remains below “Expanding Wedge” resistance

  • Gold –  No change, maintain neutrality stance between 1290 & 1265.
  • WTI Crude (Dec 2017) – Churning/consolidation below 58.30 (upper limit of an “Expanding Wedge” configuration in place since Jun 2016).  No change, maintain neutrality stance between 58.30 & 55.66.

Stock Indices (CFD) – Risk of a medium-term (1-3weeks) corrective decline

  • US SP 500 – Broke below the 2580 (excess) key short-term support and plunged straight towards the 2565 key medium-term support as per highlighted in our weekly technical outlook published on Mon (printed a low of 2566 in yesterday,09 Nov U.S. session. The daily RSI oscillator has flashed a bearish divergence signal at its overbought region, a sign that medium-term upside momentum of price action has started to wane. In addition, relative strength analysis of its two cyclical (heavy weigh sectors); the Industrials & the Financials  have started to show short to medium-term underperformance against the benchmark S&P 500. Thus, the medium-term uptrend on the Index in place since 21 Aug 2017 low is now at risk which has reduced to conviction for a further push up towards the 2600/2620 medium-term resistance (printed a current all-time of 2597 on Tues, 07 Nov). Turn bearish now below 2597 for another potential minor downleg to test the 2565 medium-term support and a break below it opens up scope for a further potential decline towards  the next support at 2544 (swing low areas of 19/25 Oct 2017).
  • Japan 225 – “Blow-off Top” sighted right at the predefined 23080/260 medium-term resistance (refer to yesterday, 09 Nov “Chart Of The Day” for details, link is here).  Right now, it is shaping a minor corrective rebound to retrace yesterday’s sell off after it hit the first short-term support/target of 22425 (printed a low of 22315 in yesterday, 09 Nov U.S. session) with potential corrective rebound target coming in at 22860/960 (former minor swing high areas of 07/08 Nov 2017 + 50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from yesterday’ Asian session high to yesterday’s U.S. session low). Maintain bearish bias below 23070 key short-term resistance for another potential downleg to retest 22425/22315 before targeting the 22200/22100 medium-term support zone.
  • Hong Kong 50 – Managed to hold right at the predefined 28970 tightened key short-term support (printed a low of 28972 in yesterday, 09 Nov U.S. session). No change, maintain bullish bias above 28970 for potential last push up to target the 29300 medium-term resistance (see weekly technical outlook).
  • Australia 200 – Managed to hold right at the predefined 6010 tightened key short-term support in yesterday, 09 Nov U.S. session. No change, maintain bullish bias for a further potential push up towards 6065 medium-term resistance. Only a break above 6065 is likely to open up scope for an extended up move to target 6130 next (upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from 04 Oct 2017 low + 1.00 Fibonacci projection of the up move from 04 Oct low to 20 Oct 2017 low projected from 27 Oct 2017 low).
  • Germany 30 – Failure to surpass the 13440 upside trigger level and broke below the 13200 key medium-term support has invalidated the medium-term uptrend from 29 Aug 2017 low. Right now, it may see a minor corrective rebound to retest 13230/260 (38.2%/50% of yesterday’s decline from 13420 high to 13106 low + pull-back resistance of the former ascending channel support from 29 Aug 2017) with key short-term resistance at 13327 (former minor swing low of 08 Nov 2017) for another potential downleg towards the next intermediate support at 13050.

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform


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