Daily Key Short Term Technical Levels Fri 03 Nov 2017

FX – Mix bag with potential USD strength seen in EUR, GBP & AUD

• EUR/USD – No change, maintain bearish bias below 1.1714 key short-term resistance (close to 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 26 Oct high to 27 Oct 2017 low + upper limit of former “Head & Shoulders” neckline support”) for a potential downleg towards the intermediate support of 1.1550 (lower boundary of the medium-term descending channel from 08 Sep 2017 high + Fibonacci projection cluster). 1.1610 will be the potential downside acceleration level (minor swing low of 01 Nov 2017 + minor ascending trendline from 27 Oct 2017 low).
• GBP/USD - Broke below 1.3220 key short-term support that invalidated minor up move scenario after BoE stated its concerns on the on-going Brexit negotiations that can have a negative impact on the U.K. economy which has reduced the expectations on the pace of the next interest rate hike after its first hike yesterday (02 Nov).  Turn bearish in short-term but risk of a minor corrective bounce towards 1.3100 (pull-back resistance of the former minor range support from 06 Oct 2017 + 23.3% Fibonacci retracement of yesterday’s steep decline to yesterday’s U.S. session low  of 1.3042). Key short-term resistance will be at 1.3140/3170 (38.2%/50% Fibonacci retracement of yesterday’s steep decline to yesterday’s U.S. session low  of 1.3042). Next intermediate support coming in at 1.2850/2820 (medium-term swing low area of 24 Aug 2017 + ascending trendline from 16 Jan 2017 + former long-term descending resistance from Jul 2014 high now turns pull-back support + Fibonacci cluster).
• AUD/USD -  Testing the predefined 0.7725 key short-term resistance (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent drop from 19 Oct high to 27 Oct 2017 low) in yesterday (02 Nov) U.S. session (printed a high of 0.7729 but no hourly close above 0.7725).  Bearish reaction from the 0.7725 level in today (03 Nov) Asian session reinforced by a weaker than expected AU retail sales data for Sep. Maintain bearish bias for another potential downleg towards the next intermediate support at 0.7585 (lower boundary of medium-term descending channel from 21 Sep 2017 high + Fibonacci projection cluster).
• NZD/USD – Whipsawed around the 0.6910 key short-term resistance that has reduced the conviction to see the start of another potential bearish impulsive downleg. Right now, it is likely in the midst of undergoing a potential extension  minor degree corrective rebound from 27 Oct 2017 low of 0.6814. Next intermediate resistance stands at 0.6968/6990 (former medium-term descending channel support from 27 Jul 2017 high now turns pull-back support + minor swing high areas of 23/24 Oct 2017 + Fibonacci cluster). Key short-term support rests at 0.6885 (former minor swing high areas of 30/31 Oct 2017).
• USD/JPY – No change, maintain neutrality stance between 144.25 & 113.18 (former swing high areas of 28 Sep/06 Oct 2017 that was broken down initially  & reintegrated back). An hourly close above 114.25 is likely to see a push up towards the significant long-term range resistance zone of 114.70/115.00 (major descending trendline from Jun 2015 high).

Commodities – Rise in progress for WTI

• Gold –  No change, still trapped inside a “triangle range” configuration since 06 Oct 2017 low. Maintain neutrality stance between 1265 & 1290 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 16 Oct 2017 high to 27 Oct 2017 low + descending trendline from 08 Sep 2017 high + minor swing high of 20 Oct 2017).
• WTI Crude (Dec 2017) – Tested and held at the predefined 53.90 key short-term support as expected. No change, short-term uptrend remains intact with next intermediate resistance coming in at 55.90/56.00 (upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel from 31 Aug 2017 low + Fibonacci projection cluster).

Stock Indices (CFD) – Laggard Hong Kong 50 may see a bullish acceleration next

• US SP 500 – Dropped from its current all-time high level of 2588 but managed to stage a rebound right at the lower limit of the predefined 2570/65 key short-term support as expected. No change, maintain bullish bias above 2565 key short-term support for a further potential push up towards the next intermediate resistances of 2590 follow by 2595 (1.618 Fibonacci projection of the up move from 26 Oct 2017 low, a minor degree bullish impulsive wave iii potential target). An hourly close above 2588 in the U.S session today will tightened the key short-term support to 2575.
• Japan 225 – Rallied as expected and hit the medium-term resistance/target of 22500 as per highlighted in the weekly technical outlook report. The previous bearish divergence signal seen in the daily RSI oscillator has been negated through break above the 78% level which suggests that medium-term upside momentum of price action remains intact. Right now, the short-term uptrend of the Index from 19 Oct 2017 is likely to be in an extension phase with next intermediate resistance at 22730/760 (Fibonacci projection cluster). Key short-term support will be now at 22367/300 (yesterday, 02 Nov U.S session low + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally from 31 Oct 2017 low to 03 Nov 2017 high).
• Hong Kong 50 – Hourly close above 28545 has invalidated the minor “Head & Shoulders” formation in place since 06 Oct 2017. Supported by a weak USD/CNH below its key medium-term resistance zone of 6.67/7135 that has an indirectly correlation with Hong Kong 50 (i.e a potential drop in USD/CNH will likely see a rise in Hong Kong 50). Thus, the laggard Hong Kong 50 may start to “catch-up” with the rest of the major stock indices. Turn bullish above key short-term support at 28340 (former minor swing high of 31 Oct 2017 + minor ascending trendline from 25 Oct 2017 low) with next intermediate resistance at 29100/130 (1.1618 Fibonacci projection of the up  move from 25 Oct low to 30 Oct 2017 high projected from the minor swing low of 31 Oct 2017 low).
• Australia 200 – Rise in progress as expected. No change, 5920 key short-term support for a further potential push up towards the 6000 medium-term resistance (see latest weekly technical outlook report).
• Germany 30 – Rallied as expected and hit the lower limit of the medium-term resistance/target zone of 13435/560 as it printed a high of 13490 on Wed, 01 Nov before it traded sideways yesterday, 02 Nov).  Short-term uptrend from 25 Oct 2017 low remains intact. Risk of a minor pull-back now as the hourly Stochastic oscillator has just reversed down from its overbought zone. Tightened key short-term support now to 13400/360 (yesterday low + minor ascending trendline from 25 Oct 2017 low + 23.6% of the on-going advance from 25 Oct low to 01 Nov 2017 high).

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform

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