Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias Key Levels Wed 10 Jan

FX – Recent USD pushed up remains below resistances with USD/JPY at risk of shaping a minor bearish breakdown

• EUR/USD –Tested the excess key short-term support at 1.1930 before it staged a bounce from it (printed a low 1.1916 in yesterday, 09 Jan opening U.S. session). The on-going slow downward drift in place since 04 Jan high of 1.2089 came without any major economic data releases  which seems to be more profit-taking factor at play to retrace the recent 3 weeks plus of rally.  In addition, the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has started to flash a bullish divergence signal and just exited from its oversold region. Maintain bullish bias above 1.1930/1916 support with with 1.2010 (former minor swing low area of 04 Jan 2018) as the upside  trigger level to reinforce the start of another potential upleg to target the next resistance at 1.2125/2185 (Fibonacci projection cluster + cluster + upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from 07 Nov 2017 low).  
• GBP/USD - Traded sideways above 1.3490 key short-term support.  Maintain bullish bias for a further potential push up to retest 1.3612/3615 before targeting  1.3660/3710 (medium-term swing high of 20 Sep 2017 + Fibonacci projection cluster).
• AUD/USD – Challenged the 0.7820 tightened key short-term support but no clear break below it.  In addition, yesterday’s pushed down was stalled right above a medium-term ascending channel support from 08 Dec 2017 low.  Interestingly, the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has shaped a bullish divergence signal at its overbought region which indicates a slow-down in downside momentum of its recent slide in price action. Maintain bullish bias above 0.7820/7807 key short-term support with 0.7860 as the upside trigger level (minor descending trendline from 06 Jan 2018 high + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement from the slide from 06 Jan high to yesterday, 09 Jan 2018 low) to reinforce another round of potential upleg to target  the next resistance at 0.7970 (Fibonacci cluster).
• NZD/USD – Yesterday’s slide has managed to hold above the 0.7125 key short-term support as expected. Maintain bullish bias for another potential upleg to target the next resistance at 0.7260/7270 (upper boundary of minor ascending channel from  08 Dec 2017 low + Fibonacci cluster).
• USD/JPY – Recalled that we had adopted a neutral stance  yesterday due to limited upside potential of the recent push up from last week as the pair was hovering right below the 113.70/80 significant resistance (range top of 12/21 Dec 2017 + major descending trendline from Jun 2015). Indeed, the pair broke below the 112.80 lower neutrality range limit reinforced by a reduction in BOJ’s bond purchase programme of JGBs with 10 to 25 years left to maturity ( a signal that implies “stealth tapering”). Flip back to bearish bias below with 112.80 as the key short-term resistance and 112.00 downside trigger level (range support from  06 Dec 2017 low) to reinforce the start of another potential downleg within a long-term range configuration to target the near-term supports of 111.40 (minor swing low of 02 Dec 2017) follow by 111.00/110.80 (medium-term swing low of 28 Nov 2017 + Fibonacci projection cluster).

 Commodities – Gold remains above 1305 short-term support

• Gold – No change, maintain bullish bias above 1305 key short-term support for a further potential push up towards 1357 (swing high of 08 Sep 2017) before the significant resistance of 1375/1378 (major upside trigger level for a potential multi-month up move).
• WTI Crude (Feb 2018) –Pushed up as expected as coming close to the significant intermediate resistance/target at 63.50 (upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel from 31 Aug 2017 + Fibonacci projection cluster). Prefer to turn neutral now between 63.50 & 61.80 (lower boundary of a minor ascending channel from 14 Dec 2017).

 Stock Indices (CFD) – Mix bag, potential residual push up in S&P 500 towards significant medium-term resistance

• US SP 500 – Pushed up and almost hit the first resistance/target of 2760 as expected (printed a high of 2759 in yesterday, 09 Jan U.S. session before it erased its U.S. session gains. Time to be cautious in the short-term as it is now coming close to the 2770/80 medium-term resistance (refer to latest weekly technical outlook) coupled with a bearish divergence signal seen in the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator. Elliot Wave/fractal analysis suggests that the Index may still see a residual push up if 2746 tightened key short-term support holds towards the 2770/80 medium-term resistance to complete the intermediate degree bullish impulsive wave structure in place since 17 Apr 2017 low.
• Japan 225 – Mix elements prevail, maintain neutrality stance between 24000 & 23550/460.
• Hong Kong 50 – Rise in progress as expected. Maintain bullish bias above 30870 tightened key short-term support (former minor swing high of 04 Jan 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 21 Dec 2017 low) for a further potential push up towards 31360 near-term resistance (2.00 Fibonacci projection from 15 Dec 2017 low). Above 31360 opens up scope for a further potential upleg towards 31750 medium-term resistance (refer to latest weekly technical outlook).
• Australia 200 –  Dropped in today (10 Jan) Asian session and challenged the 6107 key short-term support. Elements are mix at this juncture. Prefer to turn neutral now between 6070 (former minor swing high area of 27 Dec 2017 + lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from 21 Sep 2017 low) & 6140.
• Germany 30 – No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips above 13300/240 (former minor swing high area of 18/19 Dec 2017 + minor ascending trendline from 02 Jan 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going rally from 02 Jan 2018 low) for a further potential push up to retest the 13530/560 near-term resistance (07 Nov 2017 swing high) in the first step.

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform

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