Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias Key Levels Tues 10 Apr

FX – Further USD weakness except in JPY

• EUR/USD – Trend bias: Push up within “triangle range” in progress. The pair inched up higher within expectation and printed a minor “higher high” of 1.2330 in yesterday, 09 Apr U.S. session. No change, maintain bullish bias above 1.2285 adjusted key short-term support (former minor swing high area of 06 Apr 2018 U.S. session + minor ascending trendline from 06 Apr 2018) for a further potential push up to target 1.2340/2370 (minor swing high area of 02 Apr 2018 + former minor swing low area of 27 Mar 2018 + 1.618 Fibonacci projection of the up move 06 Apr 2018 low to 06 Apr U.S. session high projected from 09 Apr 2018 low)  before the upper boundary/resistance of the “triangle range” at  1.2420/2440. However, failure to hold above 1.2285  negates the bullish tone for a slide to retest last Fri, 06 Apr low of 1.2215.
• GBP/USD – Trend bias: Up. Cleared above 1.4090 (an hourly close above in yesterday, 09 Apr European session) has validated the revival of a minor bullish impulsive upleg sequence. Flip back to a bullish bias above 1.4075 key short-term support (yesterday, 09 Apr low + former minor range top of 29 Mar/05 Apr 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 05 Apr 2018) for a further potential push up to target the 1.4240/4280 intermediate resistance (25 Jan/26 Mar 2018 minor swing high areas ) in the first step. However, failure to hold at 1.4075 sees a failure bullish breakout for another round of choppy slide back to retest 1.3990 (minor swing low areas of 05/06 Apr 2018).
• AUD/USD - Push up within descending range in progress. Tested and held right at the 0.7667/7658 key short term support as expected (printed an intraday low of 0.7652 in yesterday, 09 Apr European session before an  hourly close back at 0.7658) before it reversed up strongly to clear above the previous minor swing high of 0.7727 in place since 05 Apr 2018 in today, 10 Apr Asian session. No change, maintain bullish bias above 0.7690 adjusted short-term support (former minor swing high areas of 06/09 Apr that was tested & shaped an upside reversal in yesterday, 09 Apr late U.S. session) for a  further potential push up to target  0.7755/7780 (22 Mar 2018 minor swing high). Above 0.7780 opens up scope for a further up move to target 0.7810/7840 next (medium-term descending resistance from 27 Jan 2018 high + Fibonacci retracement cluster). On the flipside, a break below 0.7690 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest the 0.7667/7650 range support in place since 03 Apr 2018 low.
• NZD/USD - Push up within sideways range in progress. Inched higher as expected to print a minor “higher high” at 0.7331 in today, 10 Apr early Asian session.  No change, maintain bullish bias above 0.7300 adjusted key short-term support (former minor swing high area of 09 Apr 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 06 Apr 2018) for a further potential push up  to retest 0.7345 (minor swing high areas of 26 Feb/14 Mar 2018) before targeting the 0.7430 medium-term range resistance in place since 20 Sep 2017. On the flipside, a break below 0.7300 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest the 0.7275/50 support.
• USD/JPY - Trend bias: Up. Recall that we turned neutral yesterday between 107.10 and 106.65 due to mix elements. The pair has indeed traded within the aforementioned range.  Interestingly, it drifted down and tested the lower limit of the range at 106.65 with positive elements. The 4 hour Stochastic oscillator  has shaped a bullish divergence signal at its oversold region which indicates the downside momentum of yesterday’s slide has abated. Flip back to bullish bias above key short-term support at 106.60 (yesterday, 09 Apr U.S. session low + minor ascending channel support from 26 Mar 2018) for a  potential push up to target next intermediate resistance at 107.80 (former medium-term swing low of 08 Sep 2017). 

Stock Indices (CFD) – Further potential push up within medium-term bullish range consolidation configurations

• US SP 500 – Trend bias: Push up within “triangle” range. The Index has managed to push higher in yesterday’s 09 Apr U.S. session to print a high of 2653 before its gains were reversed due to the FBI raid on  U.S. President Trump’s  personal lawyer office in the on-going investigation on suspected Russian meddling in the 2016 Presidential election. It printed a low of 2610 which coincides with a minor ascending trendline support from  03 Apr 2018 low + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of yesterday’s rally from last Fri, 06 Apr U.S session low of 2585). Flip back to a bullish bias with 2610 as the key short-term support for a further potential push up to test the intermediate resistance of 2680/90 (minor swing high area of 27 Mar 2018 + former minor swing low areas of 07/20 Mar 2018).  However, failure to hold at 2610 shall see another round of slide to retest the 2585 key medium-term support.
• Japan 225 – Trend bias: Pushed pp within sideways range in progress. Inched higher as expected and it is now retesting the previous minor swing high of 21900 printed on 05 Apr 2018. No change, maintain bullish bias above 21530 adjusted key short-term support (today, 10 Apr Asian session current intraday low + minor ascending trendline from 24 Mar 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 22100 (minor swing high area of 13 Mar 2018) before the 22510 resistance (medium-term swing high area of 27 Apr 2018). However, a break below 21530  negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to retest the 21300 (the pull-back support of the former “Descending Wedge” resistance).
• Hong Kong 50 - Trend bias: Push up within sideways range in progress. No change, maintain bullish bias above 30060 adjusted key short-term support (yesterday, 09 Apr U.S. session low + minor ascending trendline from 04 Apr 2018) for a further potential push up to retest the 30850/31060 intermediate resistance in first step (former minor swing low area of 15 Mar 2018 + minor swing high area of 27 Mar 2018).  However, failure to hold at 30060 negates the recovery process for a slide back to retest 26220/160 (04 Apr 2018 low).
• Australia 200 – Trend bias: Push up within sideways range in progress. Pushed up and hit the 5850/80 short-term resistance as expected (printed a current intraday high of 5859 in today, 10 Apr Asian session). No change, maintain bullish bias above 5780 adjusted key short-term support (yesterday, 09 Apr low + minor ascending trendline from 04 Apr 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 5910 (former minor range support from 07/20 Mar 2018). However, a break below 5780 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest 5750/46 (last Fri, 06 Apr U.S. session swing low area).  
• Germany 30 – Trend bias: Push up within sideways range in progress. Maintain bullish bias with adjusted key short-term support at 12200 (yesterday, 09 Apr U.S. session low) for a further potential push up to target the 12500/600 intermediate range resistance in place since 07 Apr 2018 high. On the other hand, a break below 12200 (an hourly close below it) negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest the 12180/150 support (minor swing low area of 06 Apr + pull-back support of former minor descending resistance from 27 Feb 2018 high).

Commodities – 1345/48 remains the short-term key resistance for Gold

• Gold - Trend bias: Push down within sideways range. Maintain the bearish bias below 1345/48 key short-term resistance for a further potential push down to retest the 1310/1305 range support in place since 08 Feb 2018 low. On the other hand, a break above 1348 shall see a squeeze up to towards the 1365/78 major range resistance in place since Jul 2016.
• WTI Crude (May 2018) – Cleared above the 63.10 upper limit of yesterday’s neutrality zone (refer to previous report). Flip back to a bullish bias in any dips above 61.90 key short-term support (last Fri, 06 Apr swing low area) for a further potential push up to target 65.40 (minor swing high area of 02 Apr 2018) before 66.40/66.66 (medium-term range resistance in place since Jan 2018). On the flipside, a break below 61.90 opens up scope for a further slide towards the next intermediate support at 60.18/10 (01/08 Mar swing low areas).

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform

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