Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias Key Levels Mon 08 Jan

FX –   USD weakness remains intact except against the JPY

• EUR/USD – Last Fri, 05 Jan dip post NFP has managed to hold the predefined tightened key short-term support at 1.1990 (printed a low of 1.2020). No change, maintain bullish bias above 1.1990 support for a further potential push up to target the next resistance at 1.2200 (Fibonacci projection cluster +  upper boundary of medium-term ascending channel from 07 Nov 2017 low).
• GBP/USD – Continued to inch higher as expected. No change, maintain bullish bias above 1.3490 key short-term support for a further potential push up to retest 1.3612/3615 before targeting  1.3660/3710 (medium-term swing high of 20 Sep 2017 + Fibonacci projection cluster).
• AUD/USD – Rise in progress. Maintain bullish bias above tightened key short-term support now at 0.7820 (minor swing low area of 04 Jan 2018 + minor ascending channel support from 09 Dec 2017 low) for a further potential push up to target  the next resistance at 0.7970 (Fibonacci cluster).
• NZD/USD – Rise in progress. Maintain bullish bias above the 0.7125 key short-term support for another potential upleg to target the next resistance at 0.7260/7270 (upper boundary of minor ascending channel from  08 Dec 2017 low + Fibonacci cluster).
• USD/JPY – Clearance above the 113.00 short-term resistance has invalidated the minor bearish scenario to retest the 112.00 range support. Current movement in the USD/JPY has been influenced by the positive movement seen in global equities rather than movement in the other major FX pairs. With further potential up move that is being expected in the major stock indices (see below for details), the USD/JPY can squeeze higher at this juncture. Flip to a bullish bias in any dips above 112.80 short-term support for a potential push up to retest 113.70/80 (range resistance of 12/21 Dec 2017 + major descending trendline from Jun 2015).

Commodities – Short-term uptrend in Gold remains intact

• Gold – No change, maintain bullish bias above 1305 key short-term support for a further potential push up towards 1357 (swing high of 08 Sep 2017) before the significant resistance of 1375/1378 (major upside trigger level for a potential multi-month up move).
• WTI Crude (Feb 2018) – Last Fri, 08 Jan dip has managed to hold above the predefined 61.00/60.80 key short-term support. No change, maintain bullish bias for a further potential push up to target the next significant intermediate resistance at 63.50 (upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel from 31 Aug 2017 + Fibonacci projection cluster).

Stock Indices (CFD) -  Short-term uptrend remains intact

• US SP 500 – Rallied as expected A relentless push up to hit he previous week’s medium-term resistance/target at 2745 without any pull-back of 0.5% to 1%. The 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has continued to hover above its overbought region without any bearish divergence signal which suggests that short-term upside momentum remains intact. Also based on Elliot Wave/fractal analysis, a potential  minor degree bullish impulsive wave iii in place since 06 Dec 2017 minor swing low remains in play. Maintain bullish bias in any dips with a tightened key short-term support now at 2730 (minor swing low of 05 Jan 2018 + close to the lower boundary of a minor ascending channel  from 29 Dec 2017 low for a further potential push up to target the next short-term resistances at 2760 follow by 2770 (Fibonacci projection cluster).
• Japan 225 – Rise in progress as expected. Maintain bullish bias in any dips above tightened key short-term support now at 23550 (minor swing low of 05 Jan 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 02 Jan 2018) for a further potential push up towards 24000 follow by 24200 resistance (Fibonacci projection cluster + exit potential of the recent triangle range bullish breakout).
• Hong Kong 50 -  Shor-term up move in place since 06 Dec 2017 low remains intact without any clear signs of a corrective pull-back of 1% to 2% as seen from the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator at this juncture. Maintain bullish bias with a tightened key short-term support now at 30460 (minor congestion area of 03 Jan 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going rally from 20 Dec 2017 low to 04 Jan 2018 high)  for a further potential push up to target 31360 near-term resistance (2.00 Fibonacci projection from 15 Dec 2017 low).
• Australia 200 – Rise in progress as expected and hit the 6140 first short-term resistance (printed a high of 6144 in last Fri, 05 Jan U.S. session). Maintain bullish bias above 6070 tightened key short-term support (minor swing low of 04 Jan 2018 + lower boundary of minor ascending channel from 04 Jan 2018) for further potential push up towards the 6190 resistance next.
• Germany 30 –Recall that  as per mentioned in our previous report published on last Fri, 05 Jan that the Index is likely to have seen a significant medium-term low of 12740 printed on 02 Jan 2018  and it is in the kick-start another bullish impulsive upleg. Last Fri, 05 Jan clearance above 13220 medium-term resistance has reinforced the bullish camp. Turn bullish now in any dips above 13300/240 (former minor swing high area of 18/19 Dec 2017 + minor ascending trendline from 02 Jan 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going rally from 02 Jan 2018 low) for a further potential push up to retest the 13530/560 near-term resistance (07 Nov 2017 swing high) in the first step.