Daily Key Short Term Technical Levels Mon 09 Oct 2017

FX – USD corrective rebound at risk of bearish reversal

• EUR/USD – Hit 1.1680 first short-term support/target as expected on Fri, 06 Oct (post NFP printed a low of 1.1668). Short-term downtrend from 08 Sep 2017 at risk of bearish exhaustion as the pair has started to trace out a bullish reversal “Descending Wedge” as seen on its 4 hour chart from 29 Sep  2017 minor swing high. Elliot Wave/fractal analysis suggest it may see one final potential push down towards the next support at 1.1653/20 (lower boundary of “Descending Wedge”). Tightened key short-term resistance to 1.1755 (upper boundary of “Descending Wedge”).
• GBP/USD – Dropped as expected and coming close to short-term support/target of 1.3020/1.3000 (post NFP printed a low of 1.3026). Mix elements, prefer to turn neutral first between 1.3000 & 1.3180 (former minor swing low area of 12/14 Sep 2017 + descending trendline from 21 Sep 2017 high + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the current decline from 21 Sep 2017  high to 06 Oct low).
• AUD/USD -  Recall that on last Fri, 06 Oct, we had switched from an initial bearish bias to a neutral stance as the pair is approaching a major support zone of 0.7750/7730. Last Fri, post NFP, it printed a low of 0.7733 before it rebounded to close higher at 0.7764. The daily RSI oscillator has also managed to bounce off from a significant corresponding support at the 31% (close to the oversold region).  Turn bullish above 0.7730 major support for at least a potential short-term rebound towards  0.7820/30 resistance.
• NZD/USD –  Hit the 0.7050/7040 short-term support/target as expected (post NFP printed a low of 0.7049). The pair is now hovering close to the 0.7040 major support (lower boundary of the ascending channel in place since Aug 2015) with mix elements. Prefer to  turn neutral between 0.7040 & 0.7140 (upper boundary of short-term descending channel from 21 Sep 2017 high + former minor swing low area of 31 Aug 2017).
• USD/JPY – Hit the first short-term resistance/target of 113.30 as expected (post NFP printed a high of 113.44) before it reversed down to retest the key short-term support of 112.40/30. Cautious now as bearish signals have been sighted (based on last Fri, 06 Oct close, it has formed a daily “Shooting Star” candlestick coupled with an impending minor bearish “Ascending Wedge” configuration in place since 26 Sep 2017 low ). Elliot Wave/fractal analysis suggest it may see one final potential push up towards 113.50/60 resistance (upper boundary of “Ascending Wedge” + Fibonacci projection cluster).  Key short-term support remains at 112.40/30.

Commodities – Potential bullish reversal in Gold

• Gold – Dropped as expected  as it hit first short-term support/target of 1260 before it reversed up and broke above the 1277/82 key short-term resistance after last Fri, 06 Oct post NFP.  Short-term downtrend from 08 Sep 2017 now at risk of bullish reversal as it is now breaking above the upper boundary of the descending channel in place since 08 Sep 2017 high. Turn bullish above 1274 key short-term support for a potential push up towards the next short-term resistance at 1297 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 08 Sep 2017 high to 06 Oct 2017 low).
• WTI Crude (Nov 2017) – Dropped as expected from 51.22 excess short-term resistance. Short-term downtrend from 28 Sep 2017 remains intact.  Tightened key short-term resistance to 50.00 (former minor swing low area of 05 Oct 2017  + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 28 Sep 2017 high) for a further potential push down towards the next supports at 49.00 follow by 48.70/48.10 (minor swing low areas of 01/11 Sep 2017 + Fibonacci cluster).

Stock Indices (CFD) – Uptrend remains intact in U.S, Japan, Hong Kong & Germany

• US SP 500 – Dipped after post NFP (printed a low of 2543, above the 2540 tightened key short-term support) before it closed higher at 2547) No change, short-term bullish impulsive upleg from 28 Sep 2017 minor swing low remains intact with next resistance coming in at 2565/70 (upper boundary of ascending channel from 29 Aug 2017 low + Fibonacci projection cluster). Key short-term support remains at 2540.
• Japan 225 - No change, short-term bullish impulsive upleg in place since 29 Sep 2017 minor swing low remains intact with key short-term support at 20600 for a further potential push up towards the next short-term resistances at 20790 follow by 20875 (upper boundary of short-term ascending channel from 29 Sep 2017 high + 0.618 Fibonacci projection from 27 Sep 2017 low).
• Hong Kong 50 – No change, an hourly close above 28570 is likely to reinforce the bullish bias for a further potential up move towards the next resistance at 29100 (Fibonacci projection cluster) in the first step. Key short-term support remains at  28300(minor swing low of 04 Oct 2017 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the current up move from 28 Sep 2017 low).
• Australia 200 – Rebounded as expected and hit the next short-term resistance/target of 5750 (printed a current high of 5761 in today’s (09 Oct) Asian session. Coming close to the 5800 medium-term range resistance in place since Jun 2017. Prefer to turn neutral now between 5800 and 5720.
• Germany 30 – No change, short-term bullish impulsive upleg in place since 26 Sep 2017 minor swing low remains intact with key short-term support remains at  12890 (04 Oct 2017 low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going rally from 26 Sep 2017 low). Next short-term resistance remains at 13150 (upper boundary of ascending channel from 29 Aug 2017 low + Fibonacci projection cluster).

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform

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