Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias Key Levels Wed 31 Jan

FX – USD still hovering above supports

• EUR/USD – Tested the upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone at 1.2430 (printed high of 1.2454 in yesterday U.S. session) before it retreated. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 1.2430/54 & 1.2320. Failure to hold 1.2320 is likely to trigger the start of a minor corrective decline towards 1.2225 in the first step (minor swing low areas of 20/23 Jan 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 12 Dec 2017 low to 25 Jan 2018 high).
• GBP/USD – Hovering below 1.4160 key short-term resistance, maintain bearish bias with 1.3980 (yesterday low) as the downside trigger level to reinforce a further potential push down to target the next near-term support at 1.3930 in the first step (the former minor swing high areas of 18/19 Jan 2018). Below 1.3930 exposes  1.3830/3800 support next (50% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 18 Dec 2017 to 25 Jan 2018 high + major swing low areas of Jan 2009 + Jun 2001 that has been reintegrated above on 17 Jan 2018).  On the flipside, a break above 1.4160 should reinstate the bullish tone for another round of potential upleg to retest the recent high of 1.4345 before targeting 1.4500/4570 (Fibonacci cluster +  major congestion zone of Feb/May 2016 before Brexit vote).
• AUD/USD – Reacted below the 0.8130 key short-term resistance, maintain bearish bias for a further potential push down to target the  0.8000/7985 support (minor swing low of 26 Jan 2018 + lower boundary of the ascending channel from 11 Dec 2017 low).  However, a clearance above 0.8130 should reinstate the bullish tone for a potential upleg to target the 0.8170 major resistance.
• NZD/USD – Traded sideways below the 0.7380 key short-term resistance. No change, maintain bearish bias with .7270 as downside trigger level for a potential push down to target the next near-term support at  0.7200/0.7190 (former medium-term swing of 13 Oct 2017 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 08 Dec 2017 to 24 Jan 2018). However, a clearance above 0.7380 should reinstate the bullish tone for a potential upleg to retest the recent high of 0.7438 before targeting the major resistance of 0.7485/7520 (swing high areas of 27 Jul 2017/06 Sep 2016).
• USD/JPY – Still exhibiting mix elements. maintain  neutral stance between 108.00 & 109.60 (minor swing high of 26 Jan 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 12 Dec 2017 high to last Fri low). A clearance above 109.60 is likely to kick-start of potential corrective rebound towards 110.30/45 (descending trendline from 08 Jan 2018 high + former swing low area of 17 Jan 2018).

• US SP 500 – Dropped as expected and broke below the 2845 medium-term downside trigger level where the odds had increased to kick-start a medium-term (1 to 3 weeks) corrective decline/phase (see latest weekly technical outlook). In the shorter-term term (intraday), the Index may first see a minor rebound to retrace yesterday’s decline as Elliot Wave/fractal analysis has indicated a potential completion of a minor degree bearish impulsive downleg from its current all-time high of 2876 with its end target at 2820/18 coupled with bullish divergence signal seen in the hourly Stochastic oscillator at the oversold region. Thus, risk of minor rebound first above 2818 towards 2848/50 (50% Fibonacci retracement of yesterday decline + former minor swing high areas of 24/25 Jan 2018) with key short-term resistance now at 2855 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from yesterday’s decline + pull-back resistance of the former ascending channel support from 30 Dec 2017 low) for a potential push down to target the next support at 2805.  On the other hand, a break above 2855 should invalidate the bearish scenario for a squeeze up to test 2880.  
• Japan 225 – Declined as expected and broke below the 23325 downside target/medium-term downside trigger level that opened up scope for a medium-term corrective decline. Maintain bearish bias with a risk of a minor rebound first towards 23450 with tightened key short-term resistance now at 23530 (descending trendline from 23 Jan 2018 high+ former minor swing low area of 26 Jan 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 29 Jan 2018 to yesterday U.S. session low) for a further potential push down to target the next support at 23080/22970. On the flipside, a break above 23510 should negate the bearish tone for a push up to retest the recent minor range top of 23800.
• Hong Kong 50 – Broke below the 32615 medium-term downside trigger level as expected. Maintain bearish bias in any rebound below tightened key short-term resistance now at 32950 (50% Fibonacci retracement of yesterday decline + pull-back resistance of the former ascending channel support from 15 Dec 2017 low) for another potential downleg to target the next support at 32150/32000 (minor swing low area of 22 Jan 2018 + close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 07 Dec 2017 low to 29 Jan 2018 high).  However, a clearance above 32950 should invalidate the corrective decline scenario for a squeeze up towards to retest 33430/530.
• Australia 200 - Broke below 6018 and drifted down towards the 5986 medium-term lower limit neutrality  zone (see latest weekly technical outlook). Short-term hourly Stochastic oscillator has just exited from its oversold region which advocates a potential  minor rebound holding above the 5986 support towards the 6100/6109 range top in place since 15 Jan 2018.
• Germany 30 – Declined as expected.  Maintain bearish bias in any rebound below 13370 key short-term resistance for a further potential pushd down to test the 13130 medium-term downside trigger level (see latest weekly technical outlook). However, a clearance above 13370 should negate the bearish tone to see a choppy move to retest the 13450 resistance (minor descending trendline from 23 Jan 2018).

Commodities – Gold remains weak while WTI validated a minor downleg

• Gold – Yesterday 30 Jan rebound has managed to stall right at the 1347 predefined key short-term resistance (printed an intraday high of 1349 without hourly close above 1347). Maintain bearish bias for a further potential push down to target the near-term support of 1327/1325 in the first step (minor swing low area of 18 Jan 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 12 Dec 2017 low to 25 Jan 2018 high) with a medium-term uptrend in place since 12 Dec  2017 low. On the other hand, a clearance above 1347 should invalidate the minor corrective decline scenario for a recovery to retest the recent high of 1366.
• WTI Crude (Mar 2018) – Broke below the 64.80 lower limit of the short-term neutrality zone. Turn bearish in any bounce below the 65.15 key short-term resistance (50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 29 Jan 2018 high to today Asian session intraday low of 63.68) for another round of potential downleg to target the next near-term supports at 63.00 follow by 62.25 next (former minor swing high areas of 04/09 Jan 2018). However, a break above 65.15 should invalidate the minor downleg scenario for a squeeze back up to retest the 66.44 recent swing high. 

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform

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