Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias Key Levels Tues 17 Apr

FX –  USD remains below resistances

• EUR/USD – Trend bias: Push up towards “triangle range” resistance.  Broke above the 1.2350 in yesterday, 16 Apr European session had invalidated the minor setback scenario within its medium-term “Triangle” range configuration in place since 16 Feb 2018 high. Right now, it is likely to shape another round of residual push up to test the upper boundary of the aforementioned “Triangle” range. Flip back to a bullish bias in any dips above 1.2345 key short-term support (former minor swing high areas of 13/14 Apr 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 06 Apr 2018 low) for a potential push up to target the upper boundary/resistance of the “triangle range” at  1.2420/2440 (also a Fibonacci cluster). On the other hand, failure to hold 1.2345 opens up scope for a slide back towards the intermediate support of 1.2280/2265 (the former minor swing high areas of 05/07 Apr 2018).
• GBP/USD –Trend bias: Medium-term uptrend resumes. Recalled that we maintain our neutrality stance as per highlighted in yesterday’s report and the pair broke above the 1.4280/4296 upper limit of the neutrality range which validated a further potential up move. Flip back to a bullish bias in any dips above 1.4260 key short-term support (minor ascending channel support from 05 Apr 2016 low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 05 Apr low to today, 17 Apr 2018 current intraday Asian session high of 1.4354) for another round of potential upleg to target  1.4400 intermediate resistance (upper boundary of the minor ascending channel from 05 Apr 2016 low + 1.00 Fibonacci projection of the up move from 05 Apr low to 11 Apr 2018 high projected from 12 Apr 2018 low). However, a break below 1.4260 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the next support at 1.4145/4090 (former minor swing high areas of 03/04 Apr 2018 + medium-term ascending channel support from  01 Mar 2018 low).
• AUD/USD – Trend bias: Up. Pull-backed by  24 pips from yesterday, 16 Apr U.S. session high of 0.7784 to print a current Asian session intraday low of 0.7760 due to a dovish RBA minutes that indicated the next interest rate hike in Australia is not on the near-term horizon. No change as the 0.7740 key short-term support still holds, added 0.7790 as the upside trigger to reinforce the potential push up to target 0.7890 next (medium-term swing high areas of 26 Feb/14 Mar 2018). On the flipside, failure to hold at 0.7740 triggers another round of corrective pull-back towards the 0.7720/0.7700 intermediate support in the first step (the former minor swing high areas of 04/05 Apr 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going minor uptrend from 09 Apr 2018 low to yesterday, 11 Apr high of 0.7773).
• NZD/USD – Trend bias: Push up within sideways range in progress. Tested and held at the 0.7340 key short-term support yesterday, 16 Apr (printed a low of 0.7336 in the European session before an hourly close at 0.7340.  Maintain bullish bias with key short-term support at 0.7340/7330 (former medium swing high areas of 26 Feb/14 Mar + minor ascending trendline from 06 Apr 2018) for a further potential push up to target  the 0.7430 medium-term range resistance in place since 20 Sep 2017. However, failure to hold at 0.7330 (excess) negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the next intermediate support at 0.7320/7300 (the former minor swing high areas of 27 Mar/05 Apr 2018).
• USD/JPY - Trend bias: Unclear. Maintain neutrality stance between 106.90 (former minor swing high area of 11 Apr 2018 high + minor ascending channel support from 25 Mar 2018 low) and 107.80.  A break below 106.90 triggers a slide towards 105.85/60  support (minor swing low area of 02/04 Apr 2018 + pull-back support of the former medium-term “Descending Wedge” resistance from 21 Feb 2018 high).

Stock Indices (CFD – Expected S&P 500 bullish breakout seen from its minor range consolidation

• US SP 500 – Trend bias: Push up within “triangle” range. Pushed up as expected in yesterday, 16 Apr U.S. session and cleared above the 2680 neckline of minor  bullish reversal “Inverse Head & Shoulder” configuration. Maintain bullish bias above 2670 adjusted key short-term support (the former minor swing high areas of  05/06 Apr 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 06 Apr 2018 low to today, 17 Apr Asian session current intraday high of 2689) for a further potential up to target the next intermediate resistance at 2704/2707 in the first step (former minor swing low area of 19 Mar 2018 + Fibonacci cluster). On the other hand, a break below 2670 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to test 2630 (the minor ascending channel support from 03 Apr 2018 low).
• Japan 225 – Trend bias: Pushed up within sideways range. No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips above the 21530 key short-term support (10 Apr 2018 Asian session low + minor ascending trendline from 24 Mar 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 22100 (minor swing high area of 13 Mar 2018). However, a break below 21530  negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to retest the 21300 (the pull-back support of the former “Descending Wedge” resistance).
• Hong Kong 50 -Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. Managed to reversed up right above the excess 30000/29950 key short-term support (psychological level +  former swing low areas of 23 Mar/03 Apr 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 04 Apr 2018 low to 12 Apr 2018 high) after the first opening hour of sell-off seen in today, 17 Apr Asian session. In addition, the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has exited from its oversold region which indicates an “overstretched” decline that may lead to a minor mean reversion up move. Maintain bullish bias above 30000/29950 key short-term support and an hourly close above 30650 is likely to reinforce a further potential push up to test the 31165 minor range resistance. However, failure to hold at 30000/29950 negates the bullish tone to see a further slide all the way back to 29200/29070 (the swing low areas of 09 Feb/04 Apr 2018).
• Australia 200 – Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. Hit the first intermediate resistance/target at 5872 as expected (printed a current intraday high of 5874 in today, 17 Apr Asian session).  No change, maintain bullish bias above 5830 adjusted key short-term support (16 Apr 2018 low + minor ascending trendline from 04 Apr 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 5910 (former minor range support from 07/20 Mar 2018). However, a break below 5830 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest 5800 (10/12 Apr 2018 swing low areas).  
• Germany 30 – Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. Pull-backed but managed to hold the 12400/300 adjusted key short-term support (printed an intraday low of 12377 in yesterday, 16 Apr U.S. session). No change, maintain bullish bias with 12400/300 remains as the key short-term support for a further potential push up to retest last Fri, 13 Apr minor swing high of 12560 before targeting the next intermediate resistance at 12750/865 (former range support from 15 Nov 2017/02 Jan 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from its current all-time high printed on 23 Jan 2018 to 06 Feb 2018 low). On the other hand, a break below 12300 (an hourly close below it) negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest the 12180/150 support (minor swing low area of 06 Apr + pull-back support of former minor descending resistance from 27 Feb 2018 high).

Commodities – 1348/53 remains the key short-term resistance on Gold

• WTI Crude (May 2018) – Trend bias: Up. Maintain bullish bias above 66.10/66.00 (excess) key short-term support (the former range resistance in place since 25 Jan 2018 high) for a further potential up move to target the intermediate resistance of 69.10/90 in the first step (50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous primary down trend from Aug 2013 high to Feb 2016 low + former major range support from Dec 2009/May 2010), However, a break below 66.00 is considered as a failure bullish breakout to see another round of choppy decline towards the intermediate support of 63.90/80 (former minor swing high areas of 04/05 Apr 2018) within the multi-month range configuration since 25 Jan 2018.
• Gold - Trend bias: Push down within range configuration. Yesterday’s push up has managed to stall right at the 1348/53 key short-term resistance coupled with a bearish divergence seen in the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator which indicates a slowdown in its upside momentum of the minor up move from 13 Apr 2018 low. No change, maintain bearish bias below 1348/53 (excess) key short resistance (former minor ascending trendline support from 06 Apr 2018 low + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from the major range resistance of 1365/78 to 13 Apr 2018 low) for a further potential push down to retest 1335 (minor swing low area of 13 Apr 2018) before the 1322/1320 minor swing low area of 06 Apr  2018 in the first step.  On the other hand, a break above 1348/53 shall see a squeeze back up again to retest the 1365/78 major range resistance in place since Jul 2016.

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform

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