Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias Key Levels Fri 05 Jan

FX –   USD weakness remains intact ahead of NFP

• EUR/USD – Rise in progress as expected and hit the first short-term resistance/target of 1.2081/90.  Maintain bullish bias in any dips above  tightened key short-term support now at 1.1990 for a further potential push up to target the next resistance at 1.2200 (Fibonacci projection cluster +  upper boundary of medium-term ascending channel from 07 Nov 2017 low).
• GBP/USD – Rise in progress as expected. Maintain bullish bias above tightened key short-term support now at 1.3490 (minor swing low of 03 Jan 2018) for a further potential push up to retest 1.3612/3615 before targeting  1.3660/3710 (medium-term swing high of 20 Sep 2017 + Fibonacci projection cluster).
• AUD/USD – Further potential upside validated through the bullish break above the 0.7850 upper neutrality limit. Interestingly, today (05 Jan) early Asian session slide due to a weaker than expected AU trade balance for Nov has managed to hold around the  0.7850 level which is a positive price action scenario. In addition, the hourly Stochastic oscillator has managed to inch up above its oversold region which indicates that short-term upside momentum of price action remains intact. Flip back to bullish bias holding above the 0.7800/7780 key short-term support  (minor ascending trendline  from 09 Dec 2017 low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 09 Dec 2017 low to current 05 Jan 2017 intraday high) for a further potential push up to target  the next resistance at 0.7970 (Fibonacci cluster).
• NZD/USD -  Further potential upside validated through the bullish break above the 0.7130 upper neutrality limit.  Flip back to bullish bias holding above 0.7125 key short-term support (former minor swing high areas of 29 Dec/02 Jan 2018 + close to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent push up from 04 Jan 2017 to today, 05 Jan Asian session current intraday high) for another potential upleg to target the next resistance at 0.7260/7270 (upper boundary of minor ascending channel from  08 Dec 2017 low + Fibonacci cluster).
• USD/JPY – Immune from USD weakness due to bullish movement seen in global equities. Still holding below the 113.00 key short-term resistance, right now it needs to have a break below 112.50 (minor ascending trendline from 02 Jan 2018 low + minor swing low of 04 Jan 2018) to increase the conviction for a potential push down to retest 112.00 range support (swing lows of 02/06/15 Dec 2017).

Commodities – Further potential upside in Gold towards major upside trigger level

• Gold – Rise in progress as expected. Tightened key short-term support to 1305 (minor swing low of 04 Jan 2018) for a further potential push up towards 1357 (swing high of 08 Sep 2017) before the significant resistance of 1375/1378 (major upside trigger level for a potential multi-month up move).
• WTI Crude (Feb 2018) – No change, maintain bullish bias above 61.00/60.80 key short-term support for a further potential push up to target the next significant intermediate resistance at 63.50 (upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel from 31 Aug 2017 + Fibonacci projection cluster).

Stock Indices (CFD) – No signs of bullish exhaustion

• US SP 500 – Performed better than expected and rallied straight to hit the first medium-term resistance/target of 2720 without any pull-back of 0.5% towards the 2700 support. No signs of bullish exhaustion in the short-term, maintain bullish bias in any dips above tightened key short-term support at 2715/12 (minor ascending trendline from 29 Dec 2017 low + former minor swing high area of 04 Jan 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going rally from 29 Dec 2017 low to yesterday, 04 Jan U.S. session high) to target the upper limit of the medium-term resistance at 2745 (see weekly technical outlook).
• Japan 225 – Rise in progress as expected and coming close to the short-term resistance/target of 23800. No change, maintain bullish bias above tightened key short-term support now at 23400 (former medium-term swing high of 09 Nov 2017 + minor ascending trendline from 02 Jan 2018) for a further potential push up towards 24000 follow by 24200 resistances (Fibonacci projection cluster + exit potential of the recent triangle range bullish breakout).
• Hong Kong 50 – Conviction has been reduced for a minor pull-back at 30900 due to a resilient ChinaA50 and further potential weakness in USD/CNH that Hang Seng has an inverse correlation. Flip back to bullish bias in any dips above 30000 key short-term support  (former swing high area of 21 Nov 2017 +  minor ascending trendline from 07 Dec 2017 low) for a further potential push up to target  31370 follow by the medium-term resistance of 31750 (see weekly technical outlook).  
• Australia 200 – Rise in progress as expected. Maintain bullish bias above tightened key short-term support now at 6067 for further potential push up towards 6140 follow by 6190 resistance next.
• Germany 30 – The impact of the indirect correlation movement with the EUR/USD has been dampen due to the current positive movement seen in  the rest of the major stock indices. Thus, no conviction now for the Germany 30 to stage the initial residual corrective dowleg scenario towards 12660/12500 support before a recovery materialises. A break above 13220 is likely to see the return of the bulls to kickstart another wave of bullish impulsive upleg to retest the 13530/560 resistance (07 Nov 2017 swing high) in the first step.

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform

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