Two trades to watch: EUR/GBP, Gold

Fiona Cincotta
By : ,  Market Analyst

EUR/GBP rises ahead of eurozone inflation data

EUR/GBP trades higher on Friday after steep losses in the previous session. The euro fell after Putin demanded Ruble payment for gas from today.

With peace talks resuming again today, once again bringing at least a slither of hope of a diplomatic solution, the euro is edging higher.

Attention turns to the eurozone inflation data, which is expected to show inflation jumped to 6.6% YoY in March, up from 5.9%.

After substantial gains yesterday following the GDP upward revision, the pound is drifting lower. UK manufacturing PMI is expected to confirm 55.5 in March, down from 58. This is the final reading, so it is not usually as market-moving as the preliminary reading.

Learn more about inflation and forex

Where next for EUR/GBP?

EUR/GBP ran into resistance at 0.8515 before falling lower, slipping back below the 200 SMA and supporting 0.8450. The price is testing support on the falling trendline dating back to late September. The RSI remains in bullish territory above 50, suggesting that there could be more upside to be had.

Should the support hold, the price could push higher towards testing the 200 sma at 0.8470 and then 0.8515, the 2022 high.

A break below the trendline support exposes the 50 sma at 0.8370, with a break below here negating the near-term uptrend. A break below 0.83 could see the creation of a lower low.

eurgbp chart

Gold looks to the US non-farm payroll

Gold is edging lower away from $1950, snapping a two-day winning run.

Gold has been dealing with conflicting factors this week, as the continued Russian attacks on Ukraine and the stalling of peace talks, in addition to concerns of a slowdown in China, boosted demand for the safe haven.

Meanwhile, a stronger USD and expectations of a more hawkish Fed have limited the upside in the precious metal.

Today Gold is looking towards the US non-farm payroll, which is expected to show that 490k jobs were added after solid gains in January and February. Unemployment is expected to tick lower to 3.7%, and wages will rise o 5.5%.

A strong labour market report could cement a 50 basis point interest rate rise by the Fed.

What to expect from the NFP

Where next for Gold?

Ahead of the NFP, Gold lacks a strong directional bias. The RSI is on the midline – highlighting the lack of direction.

Buyers will look for a move over the 20 sma at 1950 to rise higher and bring 1972, the February 24 high, into focus.

Sellers will look for a move below 1908 to expose the 50 sma at 1898 to open the door to 1879, the November high,

gold chart

 

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