Index in Focus: Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 made a low during March 2020 at 6,771.91 as the pandemic hit in March 2020.  As easy money and low interest rates came in to play immediately following, the tech index rallied in an orderly fashion to an all-time high of 16,764.86 on November 22^nd, 2021 and began pulling back.  The ensuing sell-off brought price down to 13,020.40, a move lower of over 22%. A pullback of 20% is considered a bear market.  However, looking at the pullback on a weekly timeframe doesn’t really give that impression. On the pullback, the Nasdaq 100 held the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the March 2020 lows to the November 2021 highs, at 12,967.18.  Although price can still move lower, thus far, this would be considered a shallow pullback on the weekly timeframe.

Source: Tradingview, Stone X

Nasdaq 100 trading guide

On the move higher from March 2020, the Nasdaq 100 paused during September 2020 near 10,677.85.  As mentioned, the pullback from the highs stalled at an important level on the weekly timeframe.  This was also an important level on the daily timeframe.  13,003.08 is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the lows of September 2020 to the highs of November 2021.  Price bounced off these levels and is currently trading near the 50 Day Moving Average and horizontal resistance near 14,500.

Source: Tradingview, Stone X

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Where can the Nasdaq 100 go from here? On a 240-minute timeframe the tech index made a double bottom at the important support level from the weekly and daily timeframes.  Today, it broke above the neckline of the pattern, giving traders a target level to look for near 15,800.  However, if price is to get there, it must first pass through the 50% retracement level from the highs of December 28^th, 2021 to the double bottom lows, near 14,813.79.  In addition, a confluence of resistance sits above at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the same timeframe and horizontal resistance, between 15,165.53 and 15,337.03.  First support is at the neckline of the double bottom pattern near 14,390.55.  Below there, price can fall all the way to the low from March 16^th, near 13,475.09, and then the double bottom lows near 13,020.

Source: Tradingview, Stone X

The Nasdaq 100 has made an impressive move higher off the lows of March 2020.  However, although the tech index sold off into “technical” bear market territory, it may not have been that big of a pullback in the grand scheme of things.  Watch the confluence of resistance above and the target for the double bottom pattern on the shorter timeframe to see if the recent rally can continue.