Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias Key Levels Fri 13 Apr

FX – Mix bag & watch 0.7780 on AUD/USD for a potential imminent bullish breakout.

• EUR/USD – Trend bias: Push down towards “triangle range” resistance. Recalled that we had highlighted in our report yesterday to be cautious on the short-term up move in place since 06 Apr 2018 as it has lost upside momentum. Indeed, the pair has tumbled and broke the adjusted/tightened key short-term support at 1.2350 reinforced by a dovish ECB attributed by officials’ discussions in the previous monetary policy meeting recorded in the minutes. Turn bearish now in the short-term below 1.2350 key short-term resistance (the former minor swing low area of 11 Apr 2018 + minor descending trendline from 11 Apr 2018 high + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the steep slide seen from yesterday, 12 Apr Asian session high of 1.2380 to U.S. session low of 1.2298) for a further potential push down towards 1.2280/1.2265 intermediate support (the former minor swing high areas of 05/07 Apr 2018 + Fibonacci cluster). On the other hand, a clearance above 1.2350 shall turn the tide back  to the bulls for push up  to target the upper boundary/resistance of the “triangle range” at  1.2420/2440.
• GBP/USD –Trend bias: Unclear. Continued to push up as expected and it is now coming very close to the upper limit of the target/medium-term range resistance of 1.4240/4280 (printed a U.S. session high of 1.4246 as seen yesterday, 12 Apr). Prefer to turn neutral now between 1.4280 and 1.4190 (minor ascending channel support from 05 Apr  2018 + former minor congestion area seen yesterday, 12 Apr European session before the push up). A break below 1.4190 is likely to trigger the start of a  minor corrective down move within a medium-term range configuration in place since 25 Jan 2018 towards the 1.4090 intermediate support (former minor swing high area of 04 Apr 2018). On the flipside, a clearance above 1.4280 opens up scope for a further upleg to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.4370 (Fibonacci cluster).
• AUD/USD – Trend bias: Up. Continued to trade sideways but started to evolve within a minor bullish continuation “Ascending Triangle” range configuration in place since 11 Apr 2018 high. Flip back to a bullish bias above 0.7740 key short-term support (“Ascending Triangle” range low) and  break above 0.7780 reinforces the bullish tone for a further push up to target 0.7890 next (medium-term swing high areas of 26 Feb/14 Mar 2018). On the flipside, failure to hold at 0.7740 triggers another round of corrective pull-back towards the 0.7720/0.7700 intermediate support in the first step (the former minor swing high areas of 04/05 Apr 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going minor uptrend from 09 Apr 2018 low to yesterday, 11 Apr high of 0.7773).
• NZD/USD – Trend bias: Push up within sideways range in progress. Maintain bullish bias with key short-term support at 0.7340 (former medium swing high areas of 26 Feb/14 Mar + minor ascending trendline from 06 Apr 2018) for a further potential push up to target  the 0.7430 medium-term range resistance in place since 20 Sep 2017. However, failure to hold at 0.7340 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the next intermediate support at 0.7320/7300 (the former minor swing high areas of 27 Mar/05 Apr 2018).
• USD/JPY - Trend bias: Up. Cleared above 107.30 (former minor descending resistance from 05 Apr 2018 high) Flip back to a bullish bias from a neutrality stance (refer to yesterday report) above 106.90 key short-term support (former minor swing high area of 11 Apr 2018 high + minor ascending channel support from 25 Mar 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target next intermediate resistance at 107.80 (former medium-term swing low of 08 Sep 2017) in the first step.  A clearance above 107.80 opens up scope for a further up move towards 108.45/60 next (former medium-term swing low area of 26/30 Jan 2018 + Fibonacci cluster). However, failure to hold above 106.90 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest the 106.60 range support in place since 09 Apr 2018.

Stock Indices (CFD) – Minor potential bullish breakout configurations seen in S&P 500 & DAX

• US SP 500 – Trend bias: Push up within “triangle” range in progress. Pushed up as expected and almost hit the short-term resistance/target of 2680/90 (printed a high of 2675 in yesterday, 12 Apr U.S. session) before it pull-backed. Maintain bullish bias above adjusted key short-term support now at 2630/25 (minor swing low of 11 Apr 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 02 Apr 2018 U.S. session low+ 50% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going push up from 06 Apr 2018  U.S. session low to yesterday, 12 Apr U.S. session high of 2675) and a break above 2680 triggers a minor bullish breakout for a further potential up move to target 2740/50 next (medium-term triangle range resistance from 29 Jan 2018 high + Fibonacci cluster). However, failure to hold at 2625  shall see another round of slide to retest the 2585 key medium-term support.
• Japan 225 – Trend bias: Pushed up within sideways range. No change, maintain bullish bias above the 21530 key short-term support (10 Apr 2018 Asian session low + minor ascending trendline from 24 Mar 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 22100 (minor swing high area of 13 Mar 2018). However, a break below 21530  negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to retest the 21300 (the pull-back support of the former “Descending Wedge” resistance).
• Hong Kong 50 -Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. The Index pull-backed in yesterday, 12 Apr Asian session to print a low of 30600 that was just above the 30400 key short-term support before it recovered in the European/U.S. sessions.  The 1.8% drop seen in yesterday, Asian session is likely to be attributed by Hong Kong central bank (HKMA) intervention in the FX market to buy up HKD that caused a short-term domestic liquidity tightening environment (short-term HK interest rate under pressure to increase). No change, maintain bullish bias above 30400 key short-term support for a potential push up to retest 31165 (12 Apr high) before targeting the next intermediate resistance zone at 31340/460 (descending trendline from 29 Jan 2018 high + Fibonacci projection/retracement cluster). On the other hand, a break below 30400 negates the bullish tone for a corrective pull-back to retest 30000/29950 (psychological level +  former swing low areas of 23 Mar/03 Apr 2018).
• Australia 200 – Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. No change, maintain bullish bias above 5780 adjusted key short-term support (09 Apr low + minor ascending trendline from 04 Apr 2018 low) for a further potential push up to retest the previous minor range resistance of 5855 (minor swing high areas of 10/11 Apr/27 Mar 2018) before targeting  the next intermediate resistance at 5910 (former minor range support from 07/20 Mar 2018). However, a break below 5780 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest 5750/46 (last Fri, 06 Apr U.S. session swing low area).  
• Germany 30 – Trend bias: Push up within sideways range. Pushed up as expected and coming close to the 12500/600 short-term resistance/target (printed a high of 12437 in yesterday, 12 Apr U.S. session). No change, maintain bullish bias above adjusted key short-term support now at 12250 (11 Apr 2018 minor swing low + close to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 04 Apr 2018 low to yesterday, 12 Apr U.S session high of 12437) and a break above 12500 is likely to reinforce a further potential up move to target the next intermediate resistance at 12750/865 (former range support from 15 Nov 2017/02 Jan 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from its current all-time high printed on 23 Jan 2018 to 06 Feb 2018 low). On the other hand, a break below 12250 (an hourly close below it) negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest the 12180/150 support (minor swing low area of 06 Apr + pull-back support of former minor descending resistance from 27 Feb 2018 high).

Commodities – WTI pull-backed & held at 66.10 key short-term support

• WTI Crude (May 2018) – Trend bias: Up. Tested the key short-term support at 66.10 (printed an intraday low of 66.01 before an hourly close back above 66.10 as seen in yesterday, 12 Apr U.S. session). Maintain bullish bias above 66.10/66.00 (excess) key short-term support (the former range resistance in place since 25 Jan 2018 high) for a further potential up move to target the intermediate resistance of 69.10/90 in the first step (50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous primary down trend from Aug 2013 high to Feb 2016 low + former major range support from Dec 2009/May 2010), However, a break below 66.00 is considered as a failure bullish breakout to see another round of choppy decline towards the intermediate support of 63.90/80 (former minor swing high areas of 04/05 Apr 2018) within the multi-month range configuration since 25 Jan 2018.
• Gold - Trend bias: Push down within range configuration. Broke below the 1337 lower limit of yesterday’s neutrality zone. Flip back to a bearish bias below 1348 key short resistance (former minor ascending trendline support from 06 Apr 2018 low + former minor swing high of 04 Apr 2018) for a further potential push down to retest 1322/1320 minor swing low area of 06 Apr  2018. A break below 1320 sees a further slide towards the 1310/1305 range support in place since 08 Feb 2018 low. On the other hand, a break above 1348 shall see a squeeze back up again to retest the 1365/78 major range resistance in place since Jul 2016.

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform

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