EUR/USD 2024 Technical Outlook Preview

Chart showing uptrend
Matt Weller
By :  ,  Head of Market Research

This is an excerpt from our full EUR/USD 2024 Outlook report, one of nine detailed reports about what to expect in the coming year. Click the banner at the bottom to download the full report.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis – EUR/USD Weekly Chart


Source: TradingView, StoneX

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD sits not only near the middle of its 2023 range, but also its 3-year range as we enter 2024. After a year of consolidation, the odds of a stronger trend and more volatility in 2024 have increased, but with no clear technical trend and tremendous uncertainty about the timing and quantity of interest rate cuts on both sides of the Atlantic, readers may want to wait for prices to break out one way or another before committing too strongly.

In terms of the key levels to watch, the 2023 range between 1.0500 and 1.1250 will be key. A bullish breakout above 1.1250 would expose the January/February 2022 highs in the 1.1500 area, followed by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the whole 2021-2022 drop around 1.1750. Meanwhile, a bearish breakout below 1.0500 support could, in turn, have bears targeting the retracements of the 2022-2023 rally at 1.0200 (61.8%) and 0.9900 (78.6%), as well as the psychologically-significant parity level at 1.00.

How will a US election and Eurozone fiscal reforms impact EUR/USD? What about the outlook for the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve? See our full guide to explore these themes and more!

Market Outlook EUR/USD

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