Gold rebound stalls as key market drivers go AWOL

• Gold has been capped below $2330 this week
• US bond yields, US dollar and geopolitical headlines do not seem to be driving the price right now
• Range trade is favored near-term

Gold continues to consolidate below just record highs, paying scant attention to movements in other markets and geopolitical headlines since the start of May. As such, until we receive a definitive signal on direction, range trading is favoured near-term.

You can see the sideways range gold has been operating in on the four-hour chart, attracting bids below $2286 and offers from $2330.

While momentum remains to the upside near-term, the price action this week has not been overly convincing, failing on multiple occasions to crack $2330. That’s despite little movement in US bond yields and dollar, nor a raft of fresh geopolitical headlines casting some doubt on the prospect of an extended truce in Gaza. Reports of increased military action in the Middle East would normally boost the gold price, as witnessed in prior risk-off episodes.

Those looking for shorter-term trade ideas may want to consider selling just below $2330 targeting a return to the lower end of the current trading range. A stop above $2332 would offer protection against a resumption of the rally. Should the price move in your favour, consider lowering your stop to entry level, providing a free hit on downside.

Looking at gold’s traditional drivers like the US dollar and US interest rates, there has been very little correlation over the past month. Nor is gold being greatly influenced by geopolitical headlines, a view strengthened by the lack of correlation with WTI crude oil over the same period. As such, price signals are a good a guide as any right now when it comes to near-term directional risks.

-- Written by David Scutt

Follow David on Twitter @scutty

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