- Australia's ASX 200 futures are down -34 points (-0.45%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 7,478.00
- Japan's Nikkei 225 futures are down -220 points (-0.73%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 29,961.21
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng futures are down -107 points (-0.41%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 26,213.93
UK and Europe:
- UK's FTSE 100 index fell -53.84 points (-0.75%) to close at 7,095.53
- Europe's Euro STOXX 50 index fell -47.86 points (-1.13%) to close at 4,177.15
- Germany's DAX index fell -232.81 points (-1.47%) to close at 15,610.28
- France's CAC 40 index fell -57.18 points (-0.85%) to close at 6,668.89
Wednesday US Close:
- The Dow Jones Industrial fell -68.93 points (-0.2%) to close at 35,031.07
- The S&P 500 index fell -5.96 points (-0.14%) to close at 4,514.07
- The Nasdaq 100 index fell -54.917 points (-0.35%) to close at 15,620.85
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Futures markets point lower for Asian indices:US employers are still struggling to find workers as the JOLTS Job Openings index once again rose to a record high. And this is underscored by weaker than expected job growth figures from the ADP and NFP reports last week. JOLTS rose to a record high of 10.9 million, rising 749k last week – which is more than ADP and NFP combined (609).
Technology stocks led Wall Street lower as Delta cases continued to rise, and comments from the Fed’s Bullard saying tapering should begin soon. The Nasdaq 100 fell -0.35%, the Dow was down -0.2% and the S&P 500 trimmed -0.13% by the close. 7 of 11 S&P sectors were in the red, weighed down by energy and healthcare stocks.
The Nikkei 225 formed a bullish engulfing candle and closed above 30k yesterday, negating the bearish hammer on Tuesday and placing a support zone around 29,650 – 59750 (gap support, weekly R1 pivot). A retest of its February high seems plausible and potentially just a couple of trading days away, should the support zone continue to hold. And the bias remains for an eventual break to new highs given the long-term bullish structure of the daily chart. But we need to see how prices hold at after the open with a weak lead from Wall Street.
There’s no finer example of a bracketed market than the ASX 200 right now. Dips towards 7430 support continue to get snapped up by bulls, yet they lack the dominance to break above 7555 resistance. The bias is for an eventual bullish breakout given its long-term uptrend, but until then range trading strategies are preferred. So take note that we expect a weak open today looking at futures markets.
ASX 200 Market Internals:
ASX 200: 7512 (-0.24%), 08 September 2021:
- Financials (0.61%) was the strongest sector and Real Estate (-1.27%) was the weakest
- 7 out of the 11 sectors closed lower
- 5 out of the 11 sectors outperformed the index
- 57 (28.50%) stocks advanced, 133 (66.50%) stocks declined
- 68.5% of stocks closed above their 200-day average
- 71.5% of stocks closed above their 50-day average
- 50% of stocks closed above their 20-day average
- + 5.61% - Washington H Soul Pattinson and Company Ltd (SOL.AX)
- + 4.69% - Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG.AX)
- + 4.65% - TechnologyOne Ltd (TNE.AX)
- -6.09% - St Barbara Ltd (SBM.AX)
- -5.94% - Eagers Automotive Ltd (APE.AX)
- -5.28% - Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST.AX)
Forex: Euro pairs in focus for ECB tonight
The Canadian dollar was the weakest currency thanks to the BOC delaying any further tapering of their bond purchases at yesterday’s meeting. Interest rates were held at 0.25% and the pace of QE remained at CA $2 billion per week, citing weaker than expected growth in Q2. However, exports were the main drag on growth due to supply chain disruptions, inflation remains above 3% and expected to be transitory. The BOC still expect rates to remain low until the second half of 2022.
USD/CAD was a strongest performer and overshot our bullish target range, and reaching a high of 0.9% on the day, before paring earlier gains to close around +0.3% on the day. Given the bearish hammer on the daily chart we’d prefer to step aside over the near-term.
The US dollar index (DXY) extended its rally from its 200-day eMA and traded temporarily above the initial 92.75 target. Like USD/CAD, its trend remains bullish although the daily hammer warns of a potential pause in trend.
AUD/USD fell to a 5-day low although trying to stabilise above its 20-day eMA and weekly S1 pivot point.
Like many risk pairs of the past two weeks, EUR/JPY has had a great rally but is now showing signs it may want to retrace. After failing to hold above 130.56 resistance, a bearish engulfing candle has formed ahead of today’s ECB meeting. Traders are waiting to hear if they will taper. In all likelihood, there’s a chance they won’t taper which could help send euro crosses higher. Unless ECB staff significantly raise forecasts (in effect suggesting they will taper soon) which could then weigh on euro crosses. Should a countertrend move unfold then a decent break of 130.17 also clears the weekly pivot point and brings 129.60/65 into focus around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and weekly S1 pivot.
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Oil prices were around 1.4% higher as production has been slow to get back up and running following hurricane Ida. 67 – 70 remains the key range for WTI to now break out of for its next directional move.
Gold fell to a 2-week low although its daily range was around half of Tuesday’s selloff to show bearish momentum is waning. 1780 is the next level for bulls to defend whilst 1800 makes the nearest likely resistance level.
Bearish momentum accelerated on palladium prices to see the market fall beneath our initial 2260 target and hit a 7-month low. Volume has been rising to show fresh shorts hitting the market although we remain caution around current levels given historical support at 2185.
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