Gold steady ahead of FOMC - potential breakout in focus

Research
Matt Simpson financial analyst
By :  ,  Market Analyst

Asian Indices:

  • Australia's ASX 200 index rose by 23.9 points (0.35%) and currently trades at 6,831.20
  • Japan's Nikkei 225 index has risen by 84.04 points (0.3%) and currently trades at 27,739.25
  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng index has fallen by -281.92 points (-1.35%) and currently trades at 20,623.96
  • China's A50 Index has fallen by -137.64 points (-0.98%) and currently trades at 13,933.25

 

UK and Europe:

  • UK's FTSE 100 futures are currently up 27 points (0.37%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 7,333.28
  • Euro STOXX 50 futures are currently up 12 points (0.34%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 3,587.36
  • Germany's DAX futures are currently up 65 points (0.5%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 13,161.93

 

US Futures:

  • DJI futures are currently up 167 points (0.53%)
  • S&P 500 futures are currently up 183.25 points (1.51%)
  • Nasdaq 100 futures are currently up 37.5 points (0.96%)

 

 

Asian stock market indices were mixed overnight, with the baulk of the moves coming from China’s stock markets as Alibaba weighed on sentiment. Their annual report confirmed a reduced stake in Softbank.

 

Australian inflation rose to a 21-year high of 6.1%, and there could be further to go until we get the peak. But as it was lower than expected the consensus remains for a 50-bp hike by RBA next week.

 

The US dollar index rose for the first day in four yesterday, although it is due t weakness from the euro as opposed to a show of dollar strength. Heading into today’s meeting the euro is the strongest major whilst JPY, CHF and USD are the weakest – but they are the usual small ranges we’d expect ahead of an FOMC meeting.

 

We could be in for a quiet session with the FOMC meeting overshadowing everything. At 19:00 BST the Fed will announce their interest rate decision, with 75-bp the clear favourite – although markets are still pricing in a 24.9% chance of a 100-bp hike.

 

German consumer confidence is up shortly and, if business sentiment is anything to go by, expect a weak and dismal print. And with friction between Russia and Europe over reduced energy output from Russia then sentiment is likely to remain suppressed next month.

 

 

Gold 4-hour chart:

We remain bullish on gold after it printed a large bullish engulfing candle back above $1700. Prices are within a retracement phase and forming a potential continuation pattern, and currently holding above a 50% retracement level. The bias remains bullish above $1700 so we would consider long opportunities above this key level of support. The initial target is around the $1750 resistance zone, although if we look at this as a flag from the 1680 lows then it could project a target around 1770.

 

 

  

Economic events up next (Times in BST)

20220727calendarBST

 

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