Pfizer Q4 preview: Where next for Pfizer stock?

When will Pfizer release Q4 earnings?

Pfizer will publish fourth quarter and full year earnings on Tuesday February 8.

Pfizer Q4 earnings preview

Wall Street forecasts fourth quarter revenue will more than double to $24.2 billion from $11.7 billion the year before. Adjusted EPS is also expected to more than double year-on-year to $0.87 from $0.42, while reported EPS at the bottom-line is seen soaring to $0.82 from the $0.06 squeezed out last year.

The primary driver of that growth will come from its Covid-19 vaccine, which only started to generate material revenue for Pfizer in 2021. The jab is expected to contribute $12.3 billion of revenue in the fourth quarter compared to only $154 million the year before, when it made its first sales. However, estimates are wide-ranging among analysts, coming in as low as $11.2 billion to $15.3 billion, suggesting this will be the key to meeting Wall Street’s wider expectations during the quarter.

Pfizer has said it aimed to sell around 2.3 billion doses of its Covid-19 jab in 2021 as a whole, generating around $36 billion in sales.

The outlook for its Covid-19 vaccine in 2022 will be under focus. The last update from Pfizer said it was expecting sales to fall to around $31 billion this year, but this could change considering analyst forecasts range from as low as $29 billion to as high as $40 billion.

Another potential catalyst for Pfizer in 2022 is PAXLOVID, its breakthrough oral treatment for Covid-19 that has shown it can reduce the risk of hospitalisation or death by 89% if taken within three days of the onset of symptoms, or 88% within five days. The drug was given emergency use authorisation in the US in December and has been given the green light in several other countries since then. Pfizer has said it is aiming to produce up to 120 million courses of treatment in 2022, but has not outlined financial forecasts. It has already agreed to supply 20 million of those doses to the US government, with the first 10 million to be delivered by the end of June and the other 10 million by the end of September. The UK has ordered 2.75 million doses for this year and the EU is likely to follow considering regulators gave the drug conditional marketing authorisation just a week ago.

Analysts have currently pencilled-in $21.2 billion in PAXLOVID sales in 2022, but again forecasts are wide-ranging from $16 billion to $30 billion. One reason for that may be a dispute over what average price Pfizer will be able to charge. The US government has said it would pay $5.29 billion for the first 10 million doses, implying a price of around $529 per course. However, the middle of analyst expectations for the 120 million doses implies a much lower price closer to $177.

Meanwhile, away from Covid-19, the rest of its portfolio is set to have generated just over $23.0 billion in revenue during 2021, according to consensus figures from Bloomberg.

Analysts expect sales of blood clot-preventer Eliquis to climb over 10% from last year while its rare disease drug Vyndaqel is forecast to see a 30% jump. That is anticipated to be countered by lower revenue from its Prevnar-13 vaccine, as well as ankylosing spondylitis therapy Xeljanz, cancer medicine Xalkori and arthritis treatment Enbrel.

Below is a breakdown of what Wall Street expects for each of Pfizer’s division in both the fourth quarter and the full year. This will be how Pfizer breaks down its sales by segment when it reports. Note that net revenue figures differ from reported revenue figures.

Where next for PFE stock?

Pfizer shares have fallen over 12% since peaking at an all-time high of $$61.70 in late December. The stock slowly trended lower before briefly slipping below $50 in January for the first time in three months before managing to find some support.

The stock currently trades closer to $53 and is currently sandwiched between the 50-day sma at $55 and the 100-day sma at $50. The RSI remains in broadly neutral territory, suggesting it needs to break out of this channel to see which way it will move next.

A break above the 50-day sma, which has acted as a ceiling for the stock over the past three weeks, would allow the stock to target its starting position at the beginning of 2022 at $58 in order to bring the all-time high back into the crosshairs.

A fall below the 100-day sma would be more significant considering this has provided a floor for a longer period of over three months. That would bring the brief level of support seen last November of $47 into play, roughly in-line with the 200-day sma at $46.

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