Short-term technical outlook on BTC/USD
Key technical elements
- Since hitting its all-time high of 19892 printed on 17 Dec 2017, BTC/USD has continued to evolve in a short-term descending channel (depicted in pink) within a medium-term uptrend as illustrated by the ascending channel (depicted in green) from the 25 Mar 2017 low (see daily chart).
- The daily RSI oscillator remains negative as it still has room to manoeuvre towards its oversold region and it is not flashing any bullish divergence signal at this juncture. These observations suggest that medium-term downside momentum of price action remains intact.
- In the short-term, the recent rebound from its minor swing low of 10000 seen on 22/23 Jan 2017 has been stalled at a short-term resistance of 11800 (the descending trendline from 06 Jan 2018 high & the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 20 Jan 2018 high to 23 Jan 2018 low) (see hourly chart).
- The next significant supports rest at 9000 (swing low of 17 Jan 2018) follow by the key medium-term support of 7900 (Fibonacci projection cluster + lower boundary of descending channel from 17 Dec 2017 high).
Key levels (1 to 3 days)
Pivot (key resistance): 11800
Supports: 10000, 9000 & 7900
Next resistance: 12830/950
Therefore, as long as the 11800 short-term key pivotal resistance is not surpassed and a break below the near-term support of 10000, BTC/USD may see the start of another intermediate degree impulsive downleg to retest 9000 follow by the key medium-term support of 7900.
On the other hand, a clearance above 11800 should invalidate the bearish scenario to see a squeeze to retest the 12830/950 resistance (former swing low areas of 31 Dec 2019/12 Jan 2018 that stalled the previous recovery from 17 Jan 2018 low).
Charts are from TradingView & prices from Coinbase
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