Nasdaq100 forecast: Stocks rise after a Goldilocks jobs report

Fiona Cincotta
By :  ,  Senior Market Analyst

US futures

Dow futures +0.45% at 34888

S&P futures +0.56% at 4533

Nasdaq futures +0.50% at 15589

In Europe

FTSE +0.4% at 7478

Dax -0.21% at 15940

  • US NFP 187K jobs added vs 170k forecast
  • US average earnings rise 0.2% MoM vs 0.3% forecast
  • Dell jumps 10% after upbeat guidance
  • Oil is set to rise for a second week 

US NFP 187K jobs added vs 170k forecast

US stocks are rising after a Goldilocks US non-farm payroll report which saw payrolls rise by more than expected while wage growth cooled.

The closely watched jobs data showed that 187K jobs were added in August which was above the 170K forecast. However July’s job creation was also downwardly revised to 157K.

Average hourly wages rose 0.2% MoM, below the 0.3% forecast and on an annual basis wages growth 4.3%, down from 4.4%. The data shows that as the labor market cools, wage growth is easing, cooling inflationary pressures.

Unemployment rose to 3.8% up from 3.5%.

The payrolls come following a raft of data across the week which has been setting the scene ahead of today’s data.

Figures earlier in this week showed a fall in job openings and softer than expected private payroll job creation. Q2 GDP was downward they revised to 2.1% and inflation figures saves that core PCE the fed's preferred inflation gauge actually ticked higher to 4.2%.

All in all the data has been showing a slight weakening in the US economy at best but by no means shows the US economy is falling off a cliff and validates the view that the Federal Reserve is close he finishing it's rate hiking cycle.

Money markets are currently pricing in just a 90% probability that the Fed will pause rate hikes at the September policy meeting and are pricing in a 56% probability of a pause in the November meeting as well.

Corporate news

Broadcom there's falling free markets after the chipmaker projected current quarter revenue below expectations owing to softening demand.

Dell technologies jumped 10.1% after the PC maker increased its annual guidance for revenue and profit as it benefits from the AI boom.

Lululemon games 2% free open after the yoga wear maker reported a solid start to its third quarter and raised it annual profit and revenue forecasts for a second.

Nasdaq 100 forecast – technical analysis

The Nasdaq100 has recovered from 14550 the August low, pushing above the 50 sma and the multi-week falling trendline resistance to almost make back all of early Augusts’ losses. However, the upward move has shown signs of slowing momentum. Buyers will look for a rise above 15570, the weekly high to extend gains towards 15790 the August high ahead of 15935. On the flip side, support can be seen at 15260 the confluence of the 100 sma and the trendline support.

Nasdaq 100 forecast chart

FX markets – USD falls, GBP rises

The USD is falling after the latest jobs data, which has seen the market rein in rate hike expectations. The falling inflationary pressures means peak rates could be near,

EURUSD is rising despite weak manufacturing PMI data, which showed that manufacturing activity shrank again in August, with new orders tumbling to the lowest level on record. Stagflation concerns are rising amid stalling growth and sticky inflation.

GBPUSD edging higher on a weaker USD and despite UK manufacturing activity shrinking in August. the manufacturing PMI payments 43 down from 45.3 in July. The data comes after Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill warned that interest rates many stay higher for longer in order to tame insulation.

EUR/USD +0.20% at 1.0867

GBP/USD +0.25% at 1.2680


Oil set for a weekly rise

Oil prices are rising and it's on crack the burger week again snapping a two week losing streak, well finding support from expectations of tighter supplies.

Saudi Arabia is expected to extend its 1,000,000 barrels per day oil production since into October, prolonging the output cuts by OPEC+ to support prices.

Russia has also agreed with a path partners to cut oil exports, according to comments by Prime Minister Alexander Novak, yesterday.


WTI crude trades +0.8% at $80.60

Brent trades  +0.8% at $82.84.56


Related tags: US Open Indices Nasdaq Oil USD

Open an account today

Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution.

Web Trader platform

Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Economic Calendar