Crude oil 2024 technical outlook preview

Oil drilling in sea
By :  ,  Sr. Technical Strategist

This is an excerpt from our full Crude Oil 2024 Outlook report, one of nine detailed reports about what to expect in the coming year. Click the banner at the bottom to download the full report.

WTI Weekly


Source: TradingView

Oil prices have been trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork extending off the 2022 highs. Price turned just ahead of the upper parallel this year with the pullback settling along the median-line into the close of 2023. Momentum indicators are a tad stretched here with weekly RSI holding multi-year lows- keep an eye on this heading into 2024 as we look to validate a possible exhaustion low in the first half of the year.

Initial support is being tested here at the 1.618% extension of the September decline at 68.78 with a critical support barrier eyed just lower at 62.83-64.60- a region defined by the 2019 high-week close, the 2023 swing lows, the 1.618% extension of the 2022 decline and the 50% retracement of the 2020 advance. Look for a more meaningful reaction in price there IF reached. Note that losses below this key threshold would threaten a much more significant sell-off with such a scenario exposing initial support objectives at 49.43 and 43.08.

The recent price decline has been trading within the confines of an embedded descending channel extending off the September highs – initial resistance is eyed with the upper parallel / 52-week moving average (currently ~78). Key resistance stands with the 2021 high-week close at 83.28 (note that this level converges on the pitchfork around the April / May timeframe). Ultimately, a breach / close above the 2023 high-week close at 90.79 would be needed to suggest a larger trend reversal is underway.

What are the major fundamental storylines for Crude Oil traders to watch next year? What about the outlook for global supply and demand? See our full guide to explore these themes and more!


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