Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises after Q4 GDP growth, Tesla falls

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Fiona Cincotta
By :  ,  Senior Market Analyst

US futures

Dow futures +0.13% at 37865

S&P futures +0.40% at 484

Nasdaq futures +0.4% at 17563

In Europe

FTSE -0.09% at 7529

Dax -0.22% at 16859

  • US Q4 GDP grew at 3.3% vs 2% forecast
  • Tesla falls after warning of slower growth
  • ECB leaves rates unchanged at 4%
  • Oil rises to a 2-month high

US GDP grew 3.3% vs 4,9% in Q3

U.S. stocks are pointing to another positive start after fresh record highs for the S&P 00 and the NASDAQ 100 in the previous session after Netflix shares surged following impressive subscriber numbers.

Attention is now on US Q4 GDP data, which shows that the US economy grew at a 3.3% annual rate in the final three months of the year, down from 4.9% but ahead of the 2% forecast. The data supports the soft landing narrative. However, the data also showed the PCE prices eased to 1.7% from 2.6%, and jobless claims rose to 214k, hinting at the weakness in the labor market.

The data comes after a recent rally in stocks, partly due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates. The data also supports the narrative that the US economy is still heading for a soft landing, adding to the upbeat mood.

Attention will also turn to tomorrow's core PCE data, which will provide further clues about how sticky US inflation is. The data could help investors reassess rate cut expectations ahead of next week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

Corporate news

Tesla is set to open 8% lower after missing on Q4 earnings and revenue. The EV maker posted EPS of $0.71 versus expectations of $0.74 on revenue of $25.17 billion, weaker than the $27.6 billion forecast. Margins also fell, and Tesla warned of slower growth in 2024.

Boeing is set to open 3% lower after US aviation regulators said it would not let the playmaker grow production of its 737 Max jet following the mid-air incident at the start of January.

IBM is set to rise over 7% after the tech giant forecast full-year revenue growth above forecasts.

Market Outlook Indices

Nasdaq 100  forecast – technical analysis

The Nasdaq 100 is rising again on Thursday, with buyers looking to take out yesterday’s record high. However, the long upper wick on yesterday’s candle suggests that demand was low at the higher levels. The RSI is deeply overbought, so buyers should be cautious fall below 17000 could spur a more significant retracement towards 16560, the January 17 low. Buyers will look to take out 17668 to push towards 17000.

Nasdaq 100 forecast chart

FX markets – USD falls GBP/USD rises

The USD is edging lower but remains close to its six-week high ahead of US GDP data and core PC figures tomorrow. Signs of a resilient economy and sticky inflation could see the market temper rate cut expectations.

EUR/USD is inching higher after the ECB left interest rates on hold at a 4% record high in line with expectations. Attention will now turn to the press conference with comments by ECB president Christine Lagarde, likely to influence the euro. Lagarde is likely to continue pushing back against early rate hike expectations. However, any sense of a dovish pivot could pull the euro lower.

GBP/USD is rising despite a lack of fresh UK economic data to drive moves. The pair has consolidated across recent sessions, trading between 1.27 and 1.2750. The Bank of England interest rate decision is next week, and no change to policy is expected.

Oil rises to a two-month high.

Oil prices have risen to a two-month high of over $76 per barrel after a significant fall in US crude inventories and China stimulus lifted the price.

According to the EIA, oil stockpiles dropped by a massive 9.233 million barrels, a much larger draw than the 2.15 million barrel decline forecast and marked the largest reduction since August.

As well as the vast draw in inventories, China's move to reduce banks' reserve ratio from next month to support its struggling economy has added to the optimistic mood in the oil market.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions continued in the Middle East as the US and UK launched more strikes against Houthi militant targets in Yemen.


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