nzdusd will the kiwi follow aussie potential bearish reversal 2685342017
In today’s Asian session, the AUD/USD plummeted by 60 pips within minutes after the release of Australia’s Q4 2016 inflation data where both CPI and […]
In today’s Asian session, the AUD/USD plummeted by 60 pips within minutes after the release of Australia’s Q4 2016 inflation data where both CPI and […]
In today’s Asian session, the AUD/USD plummeted by 60 pips within minutes after the release of Australia’s Q4 2016 inflation data where both CPI and the RBA trimmed mean CPI came in slightly below expectations (1.5% y/y & 1.6% y/y versus 1.6% y/y & 1.7% y/y consensus). In our technical outlook report published yesterday, 24 January 2016, we have highlighted several bearish elements on the AUD/USD and it has now traded below the 0.7545 downside acceleration level as expected (click here for a recap).
Later today at 2145GMT, New Zealand will release its Q4 2016 inflation data follow by a speech from its central banker, RBNZ Governor Wheeler at 2300 GMT. In the upcoming Q4 2016 inflation, market consensus is expecting for a 1.2% y/y growth, an increase from a lacklustre 0.4% y/y in previous Q3. In last 3 quarters for 2016, inflation rate has remained subdue at the 0.4% level and if Q4 comes in at 1.2% y/y it will be the first time in more than two years that inflation has returned to RBNZ’s target range of 1-3%. This improved expectation on New Zealand’s Q4 inflation data is derived from rises seen in commodities prices across the spectrum since Q2 2016. However, there are several cautionary factors to consider that the expected pick up in inflation may not be sustainable that will put the hawks in RBNZ on hold as follow:
Now, let us take a look at the NZD/USD from a technical analysis perspective.
(Click to enlarge charts)
Intermediate resistance: 0.7280
Pivot (key resistance): 0.7300
Supports: 0.7220, 0.7130 & 0.7050/7017
Next resistance: 0.7380 (see weekly chart)
Technically, the NZD/USD is now at risk of a medium-term (1 to 3 weeks) bearish reversal. As long as the 0.7300 key medium-term pivotal resistance is not surpassed and a break below the 0.7220 “Ascending Wedge” support, the NZD/USD is likely to see a potential down move to target the supports at 0.7130 before 0.7050/7017 next.
On the other hand, a clearance above 0.7300 may invalidate the bearish scenario for a further squeeze up towards the lower limit of the long-term resistance zone at 0.7380.
Charts are from eSignal
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