audusd another potential new downleg looms 2692662017
Since our last analysis dated on 02 May 2017, the AUD/USD had reacted right at the predefined 0.7545/55 intermediate resistance after the outcome of the […]
Since our last analysis dated on 02 May 2017, the AUD/USD had reacted right at the predefined 0.7545/55 intermediate resistance after the outcome of the […]
Since our last analysis dated on 02 May 2017, the AUD/USD had reacted right at the predefined 0.7545/55 intermediate resistance after the outcome of the last Australian central bank, RBA monetary policy meeting. Thereafter, it staged a decline towards the 0.7400/7390 downside target/support (printed a low of 0.7325 on 09 May 2017). Click here for a recap on our previous report.
The recent rebound seen in AUD/USD is more subdued as compared to the EUR/USD due to on-going weakness seen in the commodities markets. AUD/USD tends to exhibit a direct correlation with the movement with commodities. Interestingly, as seen in the benchmark CRB Commodity Index, the recent rebound from the 176.66 has managed to test and staged a retreat right at the pull-back resistance zone of 182.85/184.65. Technical elements are now advocating for a potential decline to at least retest the 176.66 level (refer to chart below).
Further potential weakness in the commodities markets is likely to add further downside pressure in the AUD/USD. Now, let’s us take a look at the latest technical elements on AUD/USD
Intermediate resistance: 0.7445
Pivot (key resistance): 0.7470
Supports: 0.7400 (downside trigger), 0.7330 & 0.7280/60
Next resistance: 0.7585
Therefore as long as the 0.7470 short-term pivotal resistance is not surpassed and a break below 0.7400, the AUD/USD is likely to shape another new downleg to retest the recent minor swing low area of 0.7330 before targeting 0.7280/60 next.
On the other hand, a clearance above 0.7470 is likely to invalidate the preferred bearish view to see the continuation of the corrective push up towards the next resistance at 0.7585 (the range top of 13 April/24 April 2017).
Charts are from eSignal
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