US economy
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Debt ceiling explained: definition and how it works
The US hit its debt ceiling in January 2023, so what happens next? Take a look at what the cap does, and how the debt ceiling is raised.
How will the stock market react if the Republicans take Congress?
The US midterms are set to take place on 8 November 2022, and although Biden isn’t the one on the ballot paper, the results will heavily shape his ability to pass policies in the second half of his term.
US housing data continues to soften, S&P500 hits resistance
Both building permits and housing starts declined in June, as high interest rates and inflation continue to weigh on the sector.
US Consumers Are Confident (That Things Could Get Worse)
A preliminary report of consumer confidence is showing signs that consumers may have less appetite to consume, given their inflation expectations and financial concerns.
Stock market crashes: what are they and is another one coming?
Investors regularly hold their breath while prices fall, with just one question in mind: is this a stock market crash? Equities have taken their fair share of beatings during the pandemic, so let’s look at what defines a stock market crash and whether we can expect another one in the near future.
The Vix vs. CSFB: divergence won’t last forever
The S&P 500 has risen to a fresh record high on Thursday, and the Vix index has dipped below 10.00, as the risk rally marches on for another day.
After a sharp sell-off, is there salvation in the form of Mueller on the horizon?
The day started with another wave of selling in the early session, defying some expectations that the markets are due a recovery. European indices are down more than 1% so far today, while the gold price has reversed course and is $10 higher at $1,264 at the time of writing. US index futures are also pointing to a hefty sell off in the US indices when they open later, however there could be a harbour from this storm, in the form of the ex-FBI chief who has been named as the lead investigator into President Trump’s ties with Russia.
Markets struggle as Trump still a red flag for risk
After looking like the markets may take a respite from the selling pressure triggered by a US political crisis first thing this morning, the sell-off in risky assets is now back with gusto. European indices are down more than 1% so far today, while the gold price has reversed course and is $10 higher at $1,264 at the time of writing.
Weak payrolls, a great excuse to sell stocks …
The March US labour market report was full of surprises – Non Farm Payrolls came in at 98k, nearly 50% less than the market expected, […]
No panic in the UK yet, but a definite moderation
If the PMI data was a gauge of economic sentiment post the triggering of Article 50 alone, then one could argue that the early stages […]
US consumption boom powers growth, but dollar may still struggle
The third reading of the Q4 2016 US GDP report saw an upward revision to 2.1% from 1.9% and the detail suggests that the US […]
It’s win or bust for Trump, but has the Trump trade had its day?
The key theme this morning is that the vote on President Trump’s changes to the Affordable Healthcare Act will now go ahead today, after being […]
FOMC: replay of the December meeting stings the dollar
The FOMC meeting was basically a non-event since the vast majority of the market expected the Fed to hike interest rates. Even the dot plot, […]
Not too hot, not too cold… jobs data just right for March
The market has reacted to the February jobs report, the 235k increase in Non-Farm payrolls, the drop in the unemployment rate to 4.7% and the […]
Mixed jobs report unlikely to impress Trump administration
The first US labour market report since Donald Trump took office may have delivered the goods on the headline figure, Non-Farm payrolls rose by a […]
NFP preview: Do payrolls matter for the dollar?
All eyes will be on the US Labour Market report this coming Friday at 1330 GMT. The market is expecting a 175k increase in the […]
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3:36 PM − 07 Feb 2023
Can the Fed steal the limelight from Trump?
The first FOMC meeting of the year will conclude today, when the Fed announces its latest policy decision and releases a statement. There will be […]
Trump vs. Earnings
European stock markets are poised to open higher later this morning, after weaker retail sales in Germany virtually secures ECB largesse for the foreseeable future. […]
Markets get to grip with Hardliner Trump
Financial markets have been given a rude awakening at the start of a new week as investors wake up to the fact that the ‘Trump […]
TRUMP: Making America Volatile Again
Friday 20th January 2017 will see Donald Trump sworn in as the 45th President of the U.S.A. He has already proved to be a controversial […]
Is the Trump trade running on borrowed time?
The President-elect’s press conference on Wednesday was fascinating for many reasons, but for anyone looking to get more detail about the Trump administration’s economic plans, […]
A month of Trump: Dow leaves S&P 500 in its shadow
An interesting development has taken place since the US Presidential election, the Dow has outperformed the S&P 500, see figure 1. This is not really […]
Things to watch on Thursday 1st December
Oil is pulling back from yesterday’s Opec-inspired mega rally. This is to be expected after it climbed 15%. This looks more like a short-term period […]