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Indices bounce on Debt Talk Optimism

Optimism is growing that the White House will reach an agreement with the Republican House. Traders are also monitoring a plethora of Federal Reserve members speaking publicly this week, with one already going on record to suggest more rate hikes are possible. Fed fund futures currently predict an assumed pause in rate hikes going forward, with rate cuts starting in September, with up to three overall cuts in place by the end of the year. Manufacturing data for New York State provided a reminder that recession could be around the corner.

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Indices roll over on Recession Fears, Gold sparkles

Wall Street enjoyed “risk-on” sentiment this morning as regional bank shares stabilized, but stocks turned lower by midday on weaker consumer sentiment data released today, and weak economic data out of China, rekindled recession fears. Gold and the Dollar stood out as the safe haven assets.

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Inflation data mixed for Indices, markets calm, Regional Bank drama continues

Inflation data mixed for Indices, markets remain calm Today's news was generally negative, with mixed inflation data, a continuing US debt ceiling negotiations standoff, and data showing that many regional banks are tightening credit availability. Nonetheless, equity indices erased early losses to push modestly higher following the release of this morning’s consumer price index data. Bulls point to the decline in headline Inflation and jobs data were positive for the major Indices, but risks are still all too evident. Regional bank worries are again the spotlight on Wall Street, pressuring stock prices after PacWest Bancorp reported a drop in deposits last week that sent its stock down 24%. We are seeing two equity markets: the tech-heavy NASDAQ hit an eight-month high yesterday, while the KBW Regional Bank Index is down 50% in the year-to-date, with no sign that the sell-off is over.

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Research

Inflation data mixed for Indices, markets remain calm

Inflation data mixed for Indices, markets remain calm Today's news was generally negative, with mixed inflation data, a continuing US debt ceiling negotiations standoff, and data showing that many regional banks are tightening credit availability. Nonetheless, equity indices erased early losses to push modestly higher following the release of this morning’s consumer price index data. Bulls point to the decline in headline inflation, down to a 4.9% annual rate, while bears would highlight less progress on reducing sticky core inflation after more volatile food and energy prices are excluded at a 5.5% annual rate. While not enough to prompt the Fed to raise rates, the data also suggest that rate cuts might not be on its agenda anytime soon.

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