rba day further potential upside in audusd 1839412016

AUD/USD – Short-term Technical Outlook

(Click to enlarge charts)

Key elements

• Since the minor swing low of 0.7306 printed on 21 November 2016, the AUD/USD has been evolving within an ascending range channel with the upper boundary (resistance) at 0.7540/50.
• The aforementioned ascending range resistance of 0.7540/50 also confluences with a Fibonacci cluster (see 1 hour chart).
• Yesterday’s pull-back from U.S. session high of 0.7498 is now resting right at an intermediate pull-back support of 0.7440.
• The hourly Stochastic oscillator has now dipped into its oversold region which suggests that the current pull-back seen in the corresponding price action is “overstretched” where a potential bullish reversal may occur at this junction.

Key levels (1 to 3 days)

Intermediate support: 0.7440

Pivot (key support): 0.7420

Resistances: 0.7500, 0.7540/50 & 0.7600

Next support: 0.7370

Conclusion

Given that Australian key economic data has remained largely unchanged since the last RBA meeting held on 01 November 2016 and a buoyant commodities market (zinc and copper), It is likely that the RBA will kept its monetary policy stance unchanged today with the policy benchmark interest rate at a record low of 1.5% (the last cut was on 02 August 2016).

In addition, in the short to medium-term, technical factors are in favour of a further upside potential in the AUD/USD, added by a broad based USD strength pull-back/consolidation phase that is unfolding right now in the majors (USD/JPY- refusing to break above 114.60/80) & (EUR/USD – failure to break below 1.0550/0520 despite a “No” vote in yesterday’s Italian referendum on constitutional reforms).

Therefore as long as the 0.7420 short-term pivotal support holds, the AUD/USD is likely to see a potential further up move in the short-term (1 to 3 days) to retest the previous minor swing high area of 0.7500 before targeting the next resistance at 0.7540/50.

However, failure to hold above the 0.7420 pivotal support may invalidate the preferred bullish bias to see a deeper slide towards the next support at 0.7370 (the lower boundary of the short-term ascending range).

Charts are from eSignal

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