nikkei 225 short term technical outlook pull back before new potential upleg 1833712016

Tues, 11 October 2016

(Click to enlarge chart)

What happened earlier

The Japan 225 Index (proxy for the Nikkei 225 futures) has rallied by close to 1% to breach slightly above the psychological 17000 level (printed a current intraday high of 17068) for the first time since four weeks ago when it printed a minor high of 17028 on 07 September  2016.

This expected rally is in line with an on-going medium-term bullish trend seen on the USD/JPY that continues to be intact as “risk-on” behaviour prevails.  Please click here for a recap on our latest weekly technical outlook for the major stock indices published yesterday, 10 October 2016.

However on a shorter-term, do expect a potential minor pull-back to occur at this juncture first.

Key elements

• The hourly (short-term) Stochastic has just reached its overbought region coupled with a bearish divergence signal. These observations suggest that upside momentum of price action is overstretched where the risk of a short-term pull-back in price action increases at this juncture.
• The key short-term support now rests at 16900/840 which is defined by the lower boundary of the short-term ascending channel in place since the minor swing low area of 30 September 2016 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent up move from last Friday, 07 October 2017 low of 16748.

Key levels (1 to 3 days)

Pivot (key support): 16900/840

Resistances: 17165 & 17400

Next support: 16550 (ascending trendline in place since 24 June 2016 low)

Conclusion

Maintain bullish bias with risk of a short-term pull-back first. 16900/840 short-term pivotal support is likely to hold the pull-back for another potential upleg to target the resistances at 17165 (intermediate range top in place since 31 May 2016) follow by 17400 next.

However, a break below 16840 is likely to negate the preferred bullish tone to see a deeper pull-back to test the next support at 16550.

Charts are from City Index Advantage TraderPro

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