nikkei 225 daily outlook thurs 19 nov probing 20040 intermediate resistance for further potential up

(Click to enlarge chart)

What happened yesterday

The Japan 225 (proxy for the Nikkei 225) has met the first expected target at 19840 and shaped the “intended” pull-backed (printed a low of 19658) just above the 19560 short-term pivotal support in the Asian/European session.

Thereafter, it had rallied in the U.S. session to hit a high of 19965 (close to the expected target of 20040) the release of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s last monetary policy minutes that indicated a high possibility of an interest rate hike in December.

Please click on this link for a recap on our previous daily technical outlook/strategy.

Key elements

• Current price action has continued to push higher as market participants wait for the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision later on 0300 GMT (11 am, Singapore time).
• The key short-term support now stands at 19780 which is defined by the trendline support (in orange) linking the higher lows since 16 November 2015 and the 23.36% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 16 November 2015 to  yesterday high of 19965.
• The next resistances after 20040 will be at 20300 (1.00 Fibonacci projection) follow by 20700 (upper boundary of the ascending channel, in dark blue in place since 29 September 2015 low + 1.618 Fibonacci projection).
• The hourly (short-term) RSI oscillator remains bullish above its support and the 50% neutrality level. These observations suggest that upside momentum remains intact.

Key levels (1 to 3 days)

Pivot (key support): 19780

Resistance: 20040, 20300 & 20700

Next support: 19460 & 19190

Conclusion

Current technical elements are still positive despite price action is just hovering below the 20040 intermediate resistance. As long as the 19780 daily (short-term) pivotal support holds and a break above 20040 is likely to see a further potential acceleration towards the next resistance at 20300 and even 20700 next.

On the flipside, a break below the 19780 pivotal support is likely to invalidated the bullish acceleration to see a test on the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 19460.

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