is gbpaud finally settling 1051122015
GBPAUD was rejected at a resistance zone around 2.1535 last week, after the pair rallied from just below 2.1000. Is this the pair’s new trading […]
GBPAUD was rejected at a resistance zone around 2.1535 last week, after the pair rallied from just below 2.1000. Is this the pair’s new trading […]
GBPAUD was rejected at a resistance zone around 2.1535 last week, after the pair rallied from just below 2.1000. Is this the pair’s new trading range? The rally off support around 2.0850, which represents GBPAUD’s 25% fib retracement level from March’s low, indicates that price may be limited on the downside.
This isn’t surprising given the long-term fundamentals underpinning the pair; a divergence of monetary policy between of Australia and the UK, reinforced by soft economic conditions in the former and encouraging signs for the latter. In fact, the UK is widely expected to closely follow behind the FOMC’s anticipated tightening cycle at a time when interest rates in Australia are at a historical low. This notion has been fuelling a rally in GBPAUD for most of the year, with the pair rising over 3,000 pips at its highest point last week.
However, there are cracks in GBPAUD’s support pillars. Inflation remains very soft and there are even some questions about the overall health of the labour market after soft wage data last week. Also, many economists in Australia are now calling an end to the tightening cycle after the RBA removed its easing bias at its policy meeting earlier this month.
Overall, it may be time for a period of consolidation in GBPAUD as the market reassesses the potential for further gains. On the downside, we’re keeping a close eye on support around 2.0850, a break of which could see price make a run for 2.0520/70. If price manages to break a tough resistance zone around 2.1535, we would be back in territory unseen since Q1 2009.
Data highlights this week:
0130GMT – RBA meeting minutes (August)
0830GMT – UK CPI (July)
0830GMT – UK retail sales (July)
Source: City Index