hang seng index weekly outlook 05 oct to 09 oct coming close to 22260 range top risk of another push

(Click to enlarge charts)

What happened earlier

The Hong Kong 40 Index (proxy for the Hang Seng Index) has tumbled at the start of the week by 4.3% towards its range support and formed a low of 20290 on 29 September 2015 (a “stone throw away” from the “Black Monday”, 24 August 2015 low of 20070.

Thereafter, it has managed to stage a recovery at the end of the week towards the top of its range in place since 25 August 2015.

Please click on this link for a review on our prior weekly outlook.

Key elements

• Current price action of the Index is now back at its 22260 significant medium term resistance which is defined by the range top in place since 28 August 2015 high (see daily chart)
• The daily (medium-term) RSI oscillator remains below its resistance and 50% neutrality level which suggests that upside momentum has not surfaced (see daily chart).
• The 4 hour (short-term) Stochastic has reached its extreme overbought level and started to inch downwards. This observation suggests that limited upside potential for the Index and it may start to see another downside movement below the 22260 range top (resistance) (see 4 hour chart).
• The significant medium-term support stands at the 20290/20070 zone which is defined by the range bottom and the “Black Monday”, 24 August 2015 low (see 4 hour chart).
• The significant long-term key support stands at 19800/19400 which is defined by the mega long-term ascending trendline in place since December 1987 and a Fibonacci cluster (see monthly & weekly charts).

Key levels (1 to 3 weeks)

Pivot (key resistance): 22260

Support: 20290/20070 & 19800/19400

Next resistance: 23500/24000

Conclusion

As long as the 22260 weekly pivotal resistance is not surpassed, the Index may see a push down to retest its range support at 20290/20070.

However, a clearance above the 22260 pivotal resistance is likely to invalidate the “push down” scenario for a squeeze up to target the next resistance at 23500/24000 which is defined by the former long-term trendline support joining the lows since 26 October 2008 now turns pull-back resistance and the shorter-term descending trendline joining the highs since 26 May 2015.

Source:  Charts are from eSignal & City Index Advantage Trader

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