hang seng index further potential upside above 22500 support 1826332016

Daily Outlook, Friday 12 Aug 2016

(Click to enlarge charts)

What happened earlier/yesterday

The Hong Kong 50 Index (proxy for Hang Seng Index futures) has indeed shaped the expected push up and hit the first short-term target/resistance zone of 22810/900 (printed a high of 22828 in this morning, 12 August Asian session).

On the economic front, key China related data such retails sales and industrial production for July came in slightly below expectations; (retail sales: 10.2% y/y versus 10.5% y/y) and (industrial production: 6.0% y/y versus 6.1% y/y). These latest economic figures are still lukewarm but at least they do not indicate a hard landing scenario for China at the moment.

Please click on this link to recap our previous daily short-term technical outlook/strategy.

Key elements

• The 4 hour Stochastic oscillator remains positive in the overbought region and still has some room left to manoeuvre before hitting an extreme overbought level. These observations suggest that there is still some “residual” upside momentum left for a potential push up in price action before another round of pull-back/consolidate takes place.
• The significant resistance to watch now stands 23200 (lower limit of our expected medium-term target & upper boundary of the aforementioned ascending channel) Please click on this link to recap our latest weekly technical outlook/strategy published earlier.
• The short-term support now rests at 22500 which is defined by the steeper dotted ascending trendline (depicted in dark blue) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally from 03 August 2016 low to today’s current intraday high of 2282 (see 1 hour chart).

Key levels (1 to 3 days)

Pivot (key support): 22500

Resistances: 22900 & 23200

Next support: 22250 (lower boundary of ascending channel + minor swing high areas of 26 Jul/01 Aug 2016)

Conclusion

Maintain bullish bias with a tightened pivotal support. As long as the 22500 daily short-term pivotal support holds, the Index is likely to shape another potential upleg to test 22900 before targeting the lower limit of the medium-term target/resistance set at 23200.

However, a break below the 22500 short-term pivotal support may put the preferred bullish tone on hold for a deeper slide towards the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel in place since 24 June 2016 low now acting as a support at 22250.

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