hang seng daily outlook thurs 14 jan 2016 challenging the 19800700 key long term support 1793182016

(Click to enlarge charts)

What happened earlier

The Hong Kong 40 Index (proxy for the Hang Seng Index) has gapped down in today’s opening session and broke below the short-term pivotal support at 19900. Our preferred short-term preferred rebound scenario has been invalidated.

Please click on this link for a recap on our previous short-term daily outlook/strategy.

Key elements

• Current price action has pierced below the 19800/700 key long-term as it is a derived from the weekly chart, we need to have a weekly close below it to validate a long-term strategic bearish view for the Index support (see weekly chart).
• On the shorter-term, this morning gapped down has managed to stall at the pull-back support of the trendline resistance bullish breakout (in dotted green) at 19470 (see daily chart)
• The hourly (short-term) Stochastic oscillator has traced out a bullish divergence signal at its oversold region which suggests that this morning’s downside momentum has started to abate.
• The intermediate resistance to watch will be the opening gap at 19950.

Key levels (1 to 3 days)

Supports: 19800/700 (long-term) & 18580

Resistances: 19950 & 20680

Conclusion

We need to have a weekly close below the 19800/19700 key long-term support to validate the start of potential serve correction for the Index. In short-term trading, technical elements are mixed and we prefer to have a neutral stance between 19950 and 19470.

Only a break above the 19950 gap resistance is likely to renew the short-term rebound opportunity to target the 20680 resistance which is the former range bottom area of “Black Monday”, 24 August 2015 to 29 September 2015.

However, a violation below the 19470 intermediate support may trigger another round of waterfall slide towards the next support at 18580.

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