gbpusd at inflection zone for potential decline ahead of uk inflation data 1849062017
Later today at 0830 GMT, UK will release its key inflation data for March as follow: Core Consumer Price Index (1.9% y/y consensus with 2.0%y/y […]
Later today at 0830 GMT, UK will release its key inflation data for March as follow: Core Consumer Price Index (1.9% y/y consensus with 2.0%y/y […]
Later today at 0830 GMT, UK will release its key inflation data for March as follow:
Since October 2016, inflationary pressures have started to build-up in U.K due to a weak GBP in a post Brexit environment. Core CPI has increased from 1.2% y/y in October 2016 to 2% y/y in February 2017. In addition, overall CPI which includes energy and food prices rose to 2.3% y/y in February, the highest since September 2013 and it also surpassed the Bank of England’ inflation target set at 2%.
Given the rise of inflationary pressures, some members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have started to raise concerns that their tolerance for higher inflation are coming to a “upper limit” where they may start to vote for a rise in the benchmark policy interest rate in the near future. Thus, these hawkish elements in BoE are supporting the GBP in the wake of potential slower growth as UK kick-starts a “challenging” Brexit negation process with European Union members.
Now, let’s us take a look at the latest technical elements of GBP/USD.
Intermediate resistance: 1.2430
Pivot (key resistance): 1.2470
Supports: 1.2363, 1.2320/23000 & 1.2250
Next resistances: 1.2550 & 1.2580
Yesterday’s corrective up move seen on the GBP/USD from last Friday, 07 April low of 1.2363 has now reached a short-term inflection zone of 1.2430/2470 where it may start to reverse and continue its short-term downtrend within the medium-term “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration.
As long as the 1.2470 short-term pivotal resistance is not surpassed, the pair is likely to see a potential push down to retest 1.2363 before targeting the next support at 12320/2300
On the other hand, a clearance above 1.2470 may invalidate the preferred bearish scenario for a further push up towards 1.2550 and even the “Symmetrical Triangle” range top at 1.2580.
Charts are from eSignal
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