dax daily outlook wed 30 mar 2016 watch the 997010060 resistance 1803742016

(Click to enlarge charts)

What happened earlier/yesterday

The Germany 30 Index (proxy for the DAX futures) has managed to stage the expected decline right below the predefined short-term pivotal resistance at 9970 to print a low of 9806 in the European session.

After that “dovish speech” from Fed chairwoman, Yellen at the Economic Club of New York where she has reiterated that future policy benchmark interest rate hikes will be gradual due to weaker global growth, the Index has inched back up towards the 9970 level in the U.S. session (it does not have a clear breakdown below the “Ascending Wedge”).

Please click on this link for a recap on our previous short-term daily outlook/strategy.

Today key economic data release for Germany as follow:

1)      Consumer Price Index for Mar @1200 GMT

Key elements

• Even though the Index has remained below yesterday’s short-term pivotal resistance of 9970, there is a risk that when the cash market opens later @0700 GMT it may stage a “residual push up”. Therefore, we have set an excess level at 10060 which is defined by the former minor swing highs areas of 17/21 March 2016 and close to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 23 March 2016 high to yesterday low of 9806.
• The significant short-term support remains at 9850/750 zone which is defined by the lower limit of the bearish “Ascending Wedge” and the swing lows area of 17/22 March 2016 (see 4 hour chart).

Key levels (1 to 3 days)

Pivot (key resistance): 9970/10060

Supports: 9850/750

Next resistance: 10130 (weekly pivot) & 10390

Conclusion

We maintain our bearish bias but tolerate an excess to 10060. Therefore as long as the 9970/10060 short-term pivotal resistance is not surpassed, the Index may see a decline back to test the 9850/750 short-term support. Only a break below 9850/750 is likely to trigger a further downside movement.

On the flipside, a break above the 10060 level is likely to negate the bearish tone to see a push up to test the 10130 medium-term pivotal resistance. Only a clearance above the 10130 level is likely to invalidate our medium-term bearish view to see an extension of the on-going countertrend rally towards the next resistance at 10390 in the first step.

Disclaimer

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this email, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. All queries regarding the contents of this material are to be directed to City Index, a trading name of GAIN Capital Singapore Pte Ltd.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit cityindex.com.sg for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.