dax daily outlook fri 18 sep within sideways configuration 10320 needs to be taken out 1333702015

(Click to enlarge chart)

What happened yesterday

The Germany 30 Index (proxy for the DAX) has failed to break above the 10320 upside trigger in the U.S. session and traded back down to test the range lower limit at 10170 after the Fed’s decision to maintain its overnight Fed Funds policy interest rate at 0.25%.

Please click on this link for a recap on our previous daily outlook.

Key elements

• The Index is now trading close to its lower limit of the complex range configuration at 10170.
• The upper limit (resistance) of the complex range configuration stands at 10650.
• The “stubborn” short-term range top in place since 10 September 2015 high @5pm remains at 10320.
• The hourly (short-term) Stochastic oscillator is coming close to its extreme overbought level which highlights the risk of a pull-back at the 10320 short-term range top.

Key levels (1 to 3 days)

Intermediate support: 10170

Pivot (key support): 10080

Resistance: 10320, 10510 & 10650

Next support: 9890

Conclusion

The Index has continued to trade in a sideways fashion below the 10320 range top within a complex ascending range configuration (as per highlighted by the dark blue lines).

10320 remains the upside trigger level that needs to be taken out in order to see a further potential upside movement in the short-term to target the next resistance at 10510 (swing high of 09 September 2015) and even the upper limit of the complex ascending range configuration at 10650.

However, a break below the 10080 pivotal support may invalidate the bullish expectation for a slide towards the next support at 9890.

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