Talks with Greece continue at Eurogroup meetings

EUR/USD has been stuck in a very tight range this week as we await the outcome of the Eurogroup meetings regarding the Greek situation. This ended in a deadlock last night, as the members couldn’t  even agree on a joint statement to release so expect more to come from this during the next few days. EUR/USD has been trading between 1.1350 and 1.1300 and the decision on the Greek debt is the key to its next direction.

Sterling has been strong of late, nearly breaking the 1.53 level yesterday as the inflation report draws nearer. The feeling is that the latest drop in inflation is temporary, and even though the oil prices will have an effect, the BoE will look past it and continue to edge towards raising rates by the end of this year.

USD/JPY broke through the 120.00 level yesterday and has held, as the attention is firmly on Greece at the G20, and Japan can carry on its policy to continue to push for 2 % inflation goal. Today’s US data could help get it back to the 121.00 level by the end of the day as we await the Core retail sales and the Retail sales M/M, both expected at -0.4% but an improved figure nonetheless.

The Australian dollar moves ever closer to the 0.75 level the RBA are calling for, this time affected by a 12 ½ year high with the unemployment rate jumping 30 basis points to 6.4% from 6.1%, with a very negative employment change of -12k. This put the AUD in free-fall as it dropped 70 points on the announcement. This is likely to be further affected with the US data out today, and the RBA Gov Stevens also speaking later tonight, who could be hinting at a possible further rate cut coming in March.

EUR/USD
Supports 1.1270-1.1250-1.1220   | Resistance  1.1320-1.1355-1.1375

USD/JPY
Supports  119.50-118.80-118.40| Resistance 120.75-121.20-121.90

GBP/USD
Supports 1.5200-1.5170-1.5120  | Resistance 1.5290-1.5340-1.5370