USD falls on weak data

The USD had a very disappointing day yesterday after expectations of positive data to come out failed in every way:  higher jobless claims, weaker durable goods, worse than expected Chicago PMI and lower new home sales.  This was enough to cause a selloff in USD, giving the other pairs time to regain some momentum. This could stay on course for today as volumes cool off due to the thanksgiving holiday.  Currently the USD index is trading just above the 87.50 level.

Overnight, the AUD kept on its run against the USD with a surprise to the upside in the Capex.  The NZD IS pushing higher as well, even with the weaker trade balance data that was released, it seems to be gaining with the weak US data.  The yen continues to rise with a weak USD and the overall view is that the move may be overdone for now.

Up and coming today is all about the euro area data. The Spanish CPI is already out, with a weak -0.4% dropping from -0.1% previous has put pressure on the euro from the off. The German unemployment data change is up next with it expected to be better at -1k from -22k.  Then the M3 money supply for the Eurozone which is expected to increase to 2.6% from 2.5%, which will be good for inflation data if it is on course.  Draghi is also set to speak from Helsinki about the European economic outlook. Now just to bear in mind the last speech he made was on Friday which sent EUR/USD falling over 100 points.  The Germany CPI will be released today and is expected to increase to 0.00% from -0.3% previous.  The data has no set time of release as it is comprised of six states which report their CPIs throughout the day.  EUR/USD currently trading below 1.2500, with a lot to take in this morning only time will tell where the euro ends up.

The pound gained good ground yesterday after cementing any fears of a drop in growth with an expected 0.7% second GDP estimate, but the main driver was the weak US data and little out today to sway it, EUR/GBP could be a main part of its move. Currently trading just around the 1.5800 level, and EUR/GBP currently just above 0.7900.

Overnight one to watch out for will be the Tokyo CPI data expected to be weaker than last at 2.3% from 2.5%.

EUR/USD

Supports 1.2455 1.2400 1.2365  | Resistance 1.2540 1.2580 1.2630

USD/JPY

Supports 117.40 117.20 116.90  | Resistance 117.90 118.10 118.30

GBP/USD

Supports 1.5710 1.5630 1.5580  | Resistance 1.5835 1.5885 1.5960