Weekly Technical Outlook on Major Stock Indices 15 Apr to 19 Apr 2019

S&P 500 – Uptrend remains intact

Key Levels (1 to 3 weeks)

Intermediate support: 2875

Pivot (key support): 2850

Resistances: 2940 & 2951

Next support: 2730

Medium-term (1 to 3 weeks) Outlook

The SP 500 Index (proxy for the S&P 500 futures) has continued to inch upward as expected and printed a higher weekly close at 2907 on last Fri, 12 Apr. Click here for a recap on our previous weekly outlook report.

There are still no clear signs of medium-term bullish exhaustion while the shorter-term 4-hour Stochastic oscillator is now hovering just below an extreme overbought level of 95. Thus, the Index may shape a minor pull-back first to retest the 2875 intermediate support (09 Apr 2019 minor swing low) before a new upleg materialises. No change, maintain bullish bias with a tightened key medium-term pivotal support now at 2850 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 25 Mar 2019 low to 12 Apr 2019 high & ascending channel support from 08 Mar 2019 low) for a further potential push up to retest is current all-time high level of 2940 before targeting the next resistance at 2951 (1.00 Fibonacci expansion of the up move from 26 Dec 2018 swing low area to 18 Jan 2019 high projected from 23 Jan 2019 low & upper boundary of the ascending channel from 08 Mar 2019 low).

However, a break with a daily close below 2850 invalidates the bullish scenario to kickstart a multi-week corrective decline (a retracement of the entire on-going up move from 26 Dec 2018 low towards 2730 support in the first step.

Nikkei 225 – Bullish break above 21880 range resistance

Key Levels (1 to 3 weeks)

Pivot (key support): 21880/700

Resistances: 22800 & 23050 (LT pivot)

Next support: 20900

Medium-term (1 to 3 weeks) Outlook

Last Fri 12 Apr, the Japan 225 Index (proxy for the Nikkei 225 futures) has staged a bullish breakout above the 21880 key medium-term range resistance in place since 03 Mar 2019 which has validated at least a multi-week up move.

Key elements remain positive where the daily RSI oscillator still has room to manoeuvre to the upside before it reaches an extreme overbought level of 83. For this week, the key medium-term pivotal support to watch will be at 21880/700 for a further potential push up to target 22880 before the long-term pivotal resistance at 23050 (close to 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the previous 3-mont down move from 01 Oct 2018 high to 26 Dec 2018 low & pull-back resistance of the former major ascending channel support from Jun 2016 low).

However, failure to hold at 21700 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest 20900 support (08/25 Mar 2019 swing low areas).

 

Hang Seng – Further potential upside above 29500 key support

Key Levels (1 to 3 weeks)

Intermediate support: 29900

Pivot (key support): 29500

Resistances: 30500/650 & 31300

Next support: 27290

Medium-term (1 to 3 weeks) Outlook

Last week, the Hong Kong 50 Index (proxy for Hang Seng Index futures) has traded sideways above the intermediate support of 29500. No major changes on its key elements, we maintain the bullish bias with a tightened key medium-term pivotal support now at 29500 (former range support area of 09 Feb/07 May 2018 & ascending channel support from 03 Jan 2019 low). The shorter-term Stochastic oscillator is now hovering right below an extreme overbought level of 95 which increases the risk of a minor pull-back first towards 29900 intermediate support before a new potential upleg materials to target the next resistances at 30500/650 and 31300 (upper boundary of the ascending channel in place since 03 Jan 2019 low & Fibonacci expansion cluster).

However, failure to hold at 29500 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the next support at 27290 (former swing high of 03 Dec 2018 & close to 50% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 03 Jan 2019 low to 09 Apr 2019 high).

 

ASX 200 – 6290 remains the key range resistance to watch

Key Levels (1 to 3 weeks)

Resistances: 6290 & 6380

Supports: 6095, 5920 & 5825

Medium-term (1 to 3 weeks) Outlook

Mix elements for the Australia 200 Index (proxy for the ASX 200 futures) as it continued to trade sideways below the potential medium-term bearish reversal “Double Top” resistance at 6290.

No change, maintain neutral stance between 6290 and 6095 (“Double Top” neckline support). Only a daily close below 6095 opens up scope for a further potential decline to target the next support at 5940/20 in the first step (former swing high areas of 07 Nov 2018/18 Jan 2019 & the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire rebound from 23 Dec 2018 low to 06 Mar 2019 high).

On the flipside, a clearance with a daily close above 6290 see a further squeeze up towards 6380 (17 Aug 2018 major swing high & 52-week high).

 

DAX – Further potential upside above 11800 key support

Key Levels (1 to 3 weeks)

Intermediate support: 11940

Pivot (key support):11800

Resistances 12100 (trigger) & 12350/450

Next support: 11270

Medium-term (1 to 3 weeks) Outlook

Since its reintegration back above the 11800 neckline support of the major bearish reversal “Head & Shoulders” configuration, the Germany 30 Index (proxy for the DAX futures) has continued to trace out a series of “higher lows” above a minor ascending trendline support from 25 Mar 2019 low.

No change on its key elements. Maintain bullish bias in any dips with a tightened key medium-term pivotal support now at 11800 and a break above 12100 (the descending trendline resistance in place since 23 Jan 2018 all-time high) reinforces a further potential push up to target the next resistance at 12350/450.

However, a break with a daily close below 11700 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the next support at 11270 (25 Mar 2019 swing low area & 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 26 Dec 2018 low to 04 Apr 2019 high).