USD/RUB hit flag target. What’s next?
Russian troops are building up on the Ukraine border. Thus far, they have amassed roughly 100,000 troops. As a result, the Russian Ruble is falling. Below are recent headlines as to why the Ruble is continuing to fall:
- The UK said on Monday that Russia is looking to replace the Ukraine President with a pro-Russian President.
- On Tuesday, the UK said that Russian advanced troops are already operating inside Ukraine.
- On Monday, the US put 8,500 troops on notice that they may be headed to Europe.
- The US asked the families of diplomats in Ukraine to leave.
- The US and the UK are discussing sanctions on Russian. The biggest sanction is a removal from the SWIFT system
Yet, Russia says the West is acting out of hysteria and that it has no intentions of invading Ukraine. Whether they will or not is irrelevant for the Ruble at this point. The Russian currency isn’t sticking around to find out. Traders have been selling the Ruble aggressively since the beginning of the year.
Trade USD/RUB now: Login or Open a new account!
• Open an account in the UK
• Open an account in Australia
• Open an account in Singapore
USD/RUB had been trading in a symmetrical triangle (green lines) since the beginning of the pandemic in early 2020. As price approached the apex, the pair began to form a flag formation just above the 200 Day Moving Average. It then broke above the top trendline of the triangle near 75.70. After a brief pullback to retest the trendline, USD/RUB was off to the races and hasn’t looked back since. Yesterday, price reached the target of the flag pattern, reaching a high of 77.77.
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
So where is the Ruble headed now? On a 240-minute timeframe, it appears as if USD/RUB is still headed higher, as it has formed a short-term flag formation. The target for the flag is near 80.25, which is also the 127.2% Fibonacci extension from the highs of April 5th, 2021 to the lows of October 26th, 2021. First horizontal resistance is at the highs of November 2nd, 2020 and then the highs from March 2020 at 82.86. If price does continue higher soon (for example, if Russian invade Ukraine), USD/RUB could be up at 84.42, which is the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the recently mentioned timeframe. Price is currently trading near the first support level, the highs from April 6th, 2021, at 78.58. Below there, horizontal support is at 77.20 and 75.61, then the 50 Day Moving Average (see daily) at 74.75.
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
If the headlines continue to be negative regarding Russia invading Ukraine, it should provide a stronger reason for USD/RUB to move higher. After completing a flag on the daily timeframe, the pair appears to be forming another flag on the shorter 240-minute timeframe. Watch the 80.20 level for a flag target!
Learn more about forex trading opportunities.
From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.
As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.
City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.
The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.
While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.
StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment further CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.
It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.cityindex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.cityindex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 28.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.
© City Index 2024