Russian Ruble is reeling

After days of talks between Russia and NATO allies over Russian forces on the Ukraine border, both sides walked away without any kind of agreement. Russia will not begin discussions without NATO and the US meeting its demand that Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO. Russia says this helps guarantee its security. Meanwhile, NATO was hoping to deescalate the situation on the Ukraine border, where Russia planted 100,000 troops and is threatening a ”catastrophic outcome” if their demands are not met, according to Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov. And with that, the Russian Ruble tumbled.

Trade USD/RUB now: Login or Open a new account!

• Open an account in the UK
• Open an account in Australia
• Open an account in Singapore

USD/RUB had been moving lower in a falling triangle (green lines) since March 2020 when the pair reached a pandemic high of 82.86. More recently, the pair broke above the 200- and 50-Day Moving Averages in mid-November 2021 and has held above them since. However, USD/RUB struggled to get above resistance at the downward sloping trendline of the triangle (green) at 75.63 and consolidated in a flag formation. In mid-December 2021, USD/RUB broke out of the flag pattern and has been oscillating around the triangle trendline since, all while remaining above the 200- and 50-Day Moving Averages at 73.46 and 73.88, respectively. On Thursday, after the comments from Ryabkov, USD/RUB broke back above the triangle trendline and is threatening to take out the January 6^th highs at 77.34. The target for the flag pattern is above April 6^th, 2021 highs near 79.25. Support below is at the 50- and 200-Day Moving Averages.

Source: Tradingview, Stone X

On a weekly timeframe, USD/RUB is trying to break out of a symmetrical triangle the pair which began forming in January 2020. If the threats from Russia continue, or if NATO and its allies refuse to give in to Russia’s demands, the pair can continue bid. The longer the bickering continues, the higher USD/RUB may go. Resistance is at last week’s high and the downward sloping trendline for the triangle near 77.34. Above there is horizontal resistance at 78.58, 80.96 and the March 2020 highs at 82.96. Final horizontal resistance is at the 2016 highs at 85.98. However, if the issues are resolved quickly, USD/RUB may pull back. Horizontal support on the weekly timeframe is at 73.13 and 69.22.

Source: Tradingview, Stone X

With talks between Russia and NATO ending without a resolution, tensions could continue to rise. If that’s the case, it may mean bad news for the Ruble, and USD/RUB could remain bid.

Learn more about forex trading opportunities.

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment further CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.cityindex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.cityindex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 28.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.