The Spending Review Preview

The spending review will only cover 2021 -22 given the clouded outlook from the covid pandemic, rather than the usual 4 years. Whilst the covid crisis has seen Chancellor Rishi Sunak present at least 5 mini statements since March, the spending review will be the most significant
Recent spending reviews haven’t had much impact on the markets. The most significant part of the review for the Pound is expected to be the new OBR growth forecasts.

OBR economic outlook
After taking into consideration Rishi Sunak’s announcements on Wednesday, the Office of Budget Responsibility will provide an outlook for the economy. At the start of the crisis the OBR expected a -13% contraction in the UK economy this year. There is a possibility that this forecast will be upwardly revised. That said, with the UK now back in lockdown 2.0 a double-digit GDP contraction of -11% could well still be on the cards.

Any comments regarding long term scaring should be closely monitored. The OBR are likely to estimate the scale of the hangover from the covid pandemic. In the summer they predicted that the UK economy would still be 3% smaller in 2025.

The Chancellor is not expected to announce any fresh tax cuts or public finances targets but will instead highlight the size of the hole in public finances that will at some point need to be filled by improved economic performance, spending cuts or taxes hikes or a combination of all three. The sheer size of this could unnerve Pound traders.

Public sector pay. Saving rather than spending is expected to dominate on Wednesday. Rumours are swirling that public sector pay could be in the firing line with pay freezes for all except front line NHS staff. This is likely to meet a frosty reception.

Levelling up the North & South of the UK could be back on the agenda and infrastructure spending is key here. Stocks to watch Carillion, Kier, Morgan Sindall

A boost to defence spending to the tune of £16.5 billion has already been announced, defence stocks bounced accordingly so we aren’t expecting too much more movement there. Stocks BAE Systems, Rolls Royce & Meggitt.

Brexit related spending with the end of transition period just weeks away Brexit related spending decisions will be high up the agenda. The UK government has already spent £8 billion on Brexit preparations and with no trade deal yet agreed more spending here could be essential.
Let’s not forget that Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said this week that a no trade deal Brexit could be as economically damaging long term as the covid pandemic.

GBP/USD Chart

GBP/USD is advancing + 0.2% around 1.3350, having broken through resistance at 1.3310. The pair trades comfortably above 50, 100 & 200 sma on 4 hour chart, suggesting their could be more upside on the cards. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3480 (high early Sept). Immediate support can be see 1.3250 50 sma, prior to horizontal support at 1.32

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.