ISM Rattles Sentiment Are Equities In For A Repeat Of December 2018

It was another sea of red where the ISM manufacturing report was concerned. The S&P500 took notice.

Manufacturing PMI contracts for a fourth consecutive month.
New orders and employment contracting back near post-GFC lows.
Prices (manufacturing inflation) contracted at their fastest pace in two years.
And basically, lots of contraction and weak numbers overall.

The market reaction said it all; USD/JPY fell from its highs, equities took a tumble and gold was bid whilst markets become concerted we could be headed for a recession. ISM manufacturing has been a closely watched report for decades, given its ability to lead growth and therefore, signal the potential for recession months in advance. Yet as previously highlighted, the US (and global) economy is increasingly shifting its focus over to the services sector. Moreover, the service sector continues to expand and it would have to drop quite sharply to close the gap with manufacturing and signal a broader, economic downturn. Whilst this doesn’t undermine the importance of manufacturing, we need to remain mindful that the US economy could be headed towards a manufacturing recession and not necessarily a full-blown one. Take note that ISM non-manufacturing read is out tomorrow.

Is ISM manufacturing about to trough? Another metric we follow is the spready between manufacturing new orders – inventories. Dubbed the ISM recession indicator, the idea is we’d want to see both the headline PMI and spread in negative territory to improve the odds a recession is imminent. Yet we see new orders is outperforming inventories, which is keeping the spread above zero. Sure, it’s a messy indicator which sees the spread decline whilst ISM was elevated, or the ISM contract whilst the spread remain positive. Yet it does a god job of providing a ‘reality check’. Combine this, with the fact that ISM Non-manufacturing remains firmly in expansion territory, then perhaps the current decline in ISM manufacturing is noise and more likely to be another blip over a full-blown recession.

For once, the S&P500 took notice of some fundamental data and traded lower for the session, although Trump’s threat to restore steel and aluminum tariffs on Brazil and Argentina also played a part. However, given yesterday’s selloff was its most bearish close in 2 months, it begs the following question:

Will this December be as turbulent (and bearish) as December 2018? Last year, December opened with a Rikshaw man doji below resistance, before embarking upon a -16% slide over the next fourteen session. If a similar move were to unfold, the S&P500 could be trading around 2,640 by the 20^th December. Whilst it recovered 6% into the close of the year, it was hardly the Santa’s rally many envisaged.

Perhaps it will be different this time… Over the long-term, December is traditionally a strong month for equities, and famously dubbed Santa’s rally. But we also find ourselves just off record highs and price action was extended beyond the upper Keltner band to warn of the need of a pullback. Whereas last year the market has already topped in September before oscillating in a volatile range, leading into December. Therefore, we can’t quite make a direct comparison based around December’s price action.

Still, it appears an interim top is in place.

The index remains within a wide bullish channel which allows for a sizeable pullback, whilst also maintaining its bullish structure
A bearish divergence has formed on the 4-hour RSI, and it also broke its swing low to warn of a deeper decline.
Near-term bias remains bearish below 3154.3, with 3019.40 and 3065.90 making suitable targets.
If downside momentum wanes and we build a new level of support around 3065.90 or even 3091.4, the risks are skewed to the upside and for ‘dip buyers’ to return.
A break below 3028 (and if done with momentum) would point towards a far more-grizzly scenario. Until which, we’ll continue to look for evidence the correction could be over.

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.