Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Moment of Truth at Trend Support

Article By: ,  Sr. Technical Strategist

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Gold snaps four-week rally – now testing November uptrend
  • XAU/USD carving August opening-range just above confluent support
  • Gold resistance 1965, 1988, 2009/17 – support 1919/29 (key), 1891, 1871

Gold prices are poised to snap a four-week winning streak with XAU/USD down more than 0.9% ahead of the close on Friday. The decline was halted at a key technical confluence this week and the focus now falls on a breakout of the August opening range. It’s the moment of truth for the bulls. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Weekly Price Forecast we noted that XAU/USD had, “responded to confluent support around 1900 and keeps the outlook weighted to the topside while above the November trendline (red).” Topside resistance was eyed at, “the 38.2% retracement of the May decline at 1965 backed closely by the 2022 high-week close at 1988.”

Gold prices registered an intraday high at 1987 the following week before reversing with the decline testing support this week at 1919/29- a region defined by the June low-week close and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June advance. Note that the November trendline converges on this range over the next few weeks and further highlights its technical significance.

Monthly open resistance now 1965 backed again by 1988. Ultimately, a breach / close above the 61.8% retracement of the May decline / record high-week close at 2009/17 needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend towards the record high-close at 2035 and the swing highs at 2075/81.

A break below this key pivot zone would threaten another accelerated decline towards the Mary 2021 high-week close at 1891 and the 61.8% extensions of the yearly a decline at 1871 (note the 52-week moving average just lower at ~1853)- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: Gold is testing a pivot zone here at multi-month uptrend support with the August opening-range taking shape just above- look to the breakout for guidance. From at trading standpoint, losses should be limited by 1919 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach / close above 2017 needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Review my latest Gold Short-term Technical Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

Key Economic Data Releases

 

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.

The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

© City Index 2024