CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
✖

Weekly COT USD Bulls Shed $10 Billion

Article By: ,  Financial Analyst
January 12, 2020 10:48 PM


Read our guide on how to interpret the weekly COT report


As of Tuesday 7th January:

  • Net-long exposure to USD fell to $4.3 billion. At -$10.2 billion from the prior week, it’s the least bullish investors have been to the dollar since June 2018.
  • Traders were the most bullish on GBP since May 2018.
  • Large speculators were on the cusp of flipping net-long on NZD.
  • Traders were their least bearish on JPY in nearly 3-months.



USD: With traders shedding -$10.2 billion in net-long exposure, it’s the largest weekly change since June 2018 and the largest negative decline since June 2015. It’s also the least bullish traders have been on the dollar in 19-months, since traders flipped to net-long. (Not) QE is certainly having an impact on the dollar, or at least traders perception of it, so perhaps this theme will persist until the Fed fix the issues in the repo market.


AUD: Net-short exposure has fallen to its lowest level in 2-months, and near similar levels seen in January 2019. And the timing is curious, given the RBA could very well cut rates early February. Still, perhaps this will provide bears with better price to consider short traders, particularly if inflation and / or employment data misses the mark ahead of RBA’s first meeting of the year.


NZD: Traders are on the cusp of flipping to net-long exposure. Moreover, we’ve seen a healthy rise of gross long exposure after shorts were culled between September and December. We continue to expect RBNZ to hold rate through Q1 so core view on NZD remains bullish.



As of Tuesday 7th January:

  • Copper traders flipped to net-short exposure after just 3-week net long.
  • Bullish exposure to platinum hit yet another record high.
  • WTI traders were their most bullish since August 2018.




WTI: Whilst traders increased their bullish exposure to a 17-month high, it should be noted that tensions were high in the Middle East which supported oil prices. Yet with WTI’s failure to close above $64 and roll over, it trades back within range and we’d expect positioning to reflect this in the next report. This means range-trading strategies are preferred whilst prices remain below $64 - $65.


StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

© City Index 2024