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Price broke the resistance level reaching 1 4270

Article By: ,  Financial Analyst
April 4, 2011 8:30 AM
EUR/USD
Range: 1.4217 – 1.4269
Support: 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4300 

Price broke the resistance level, reaching 1.4270. Last week, Euro soared after initially testing 1.4050 strong support, lows were reached following better than expected US Nonfarm Payrolls’ numbers. However, New York FED president Dudley stating there is no need to change current US economic policy, sent the cross to test weekly high around 1.4250 shortly after. Euro traders are fully engrossed in interest rate expectations. That said, with the market pricing in a 131bps of rate hikes in the coming 12 months and 44 percent chance of a 50bp boost next Thursday (a 25bp hike is seen as a certainty); expectations may be set too high. What happens if we have a quarter-percent hike and at least a few months’ pause?

 GBP/USD 
Range: 1.6114 – 1.6175
Support: 1.6130
Resistance: 1.6200
The Pound has opened the week on a positive tone and, after a strong recovery from 1.5970 low on Friday, the pair extended gains in Asian session, to breach 1.6150 high, approaching 1.6175, gains against ‘safe haven’ counterparts isn’t exceptionally difficult to achieve; but a positive close against a currency that is looking at a clear rate (and forecast) advantage requires innate strength. The ECB decision may be most interesting event scheduled; but the BoE’s meeting seems to once again be rousing expectations for a forced interest rate reaction for the BoE. That said, if the standard hold and quiet MPC scenario plays out; this optimism will once again fade.
USD/JPY
Range: 84.05 – 84.30
Support: 83.70
Resistance: 85.00 
The Japanese Yen appears set for continued weakness as the leading drivers of the currency – risk sentiment trends and relative yield spreads – come into alignment to point the way lower for the already beleaguered currency. Indeed, the Yen was the worst-performing currency in the five days through Friday, issuing the second consecutive week of losses and the worst one in 29 months. Looking ahead, the currency appears to have scope to finally break above 85.00 on USD/JPY, taking out the top of the range that has confined price action over the past six months and opening the door for a meaningful rally through the second quarter.

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