Payrolls Review US Elections stay in focus

October’s U.S. Employment Situation report was, for once, not the foremost concern for traders on the first Friday of the month, given its proximity to increasingly too-close-to-call presidential elections.

Perhaps the most remarkable point about the figures were their drizzle of minor revisions compared to the September release, the most notable being the headline payrolls upgrade by 35,000 to 191,000.

Splitting the difference, albeit not a particularly scientific practice, is certainly a short-cut methodology often applied by traders.

Doing so left the two-month total still somewhat short of previous forecasts—only 161,000 jobs were added last month against about 175,000 widely expected.

But taking into account the revised payrolls tally from the month before, the magnitude of the headline miss in October does not seem large enough to weaken expectations of a Federal reserve hike in December.

Average hourly earnings growth inching forward by a tenth of a percentage point to 0.4% also helped downplay the notion that slack might be creeping back into the U.S. labour market, particularly as the jobless rate retreated back to 4.9% from 5% seen in September.

A positive reading of the data, defrayed by worries about 8^th November was arguably reflected in cross-asset market reactions soon after the data were released.

U.S. stock index futures remained largely flat, Treasurys trimmed slight gains, and the dollar index stayed little-changed along the ‘flat line’, whilst the greenback against the yen retained the moderate bid seen since Asian trading hours.

Most market attention lay elsewhere.

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.