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Markets sailing disoriented on Greek bailout complexity

Article By: ,  Financial Analyst
February 15, 2012 8:00 AM

The potentially catastrophic default took another took for the worse after the Eurogroup meeting scheduled for today was cancelled on the basis that further technical work with the Troika was needed in ‘a number of areas’. Instead, a conference call will now take place, with the next Eurogroup meeting now scheduled to be a week later on February 20.
AUD/USD
Range: 1.0669 – 1.0755
Support: 1.0727
Resistance: 1.0791

Aussie-Dollar opened in Asia at 1.0689, picking up strongly from lows in New York of 1.0629 as risk appetite returned late in the session on reports that Greece’s Samaras would after all sign the austerity agreement. The move was seen bolstering chances of a Greek bailout despite earlier announcements from EU’s Juncker that the scheduled meeting was postponed until Monday with just a conference call now in place for today. Aussie pushed up to 1.0705 before slipping back to 1.0668. Aussie rallied back through yesterday’s 1.0733 high to 1.0752 as China’s Zhou added to risk appetite with supportive EU comments. Aussie resistance is now seen towards Monday’s high of 1.0778 and 1.0800 with large offers now seen up at 1.0820-1.0825.

EUR/USD
Range: 1.3109 – 1.3190
Support: 1.3141
Resistance: 1.3193

Euro-dollar recovered from lows of 1.3080 in New York after EU’s Jean-Claude Juncker’s cancellation of the scheduled EU meeting on Greek, opting for a conference call instead and postponing the meeting till Monday. Comments from German Finance Minister Schaueble also failed to inspire confidence when he said that Europe was better prepared for a Greek default. The EU wants to see finalising of the €325 million spending cuts before releasing the next bailout. Euro-opened in Asia at 1.3125 and after a brief dip to 1.3110, was pulled high by comments from China PBOC’s Zhou who reiterated support for the EU and crisis, pledging to do more through the IMF and EFSF. Euro broke to highs of 1.3172. Resistance looks at 1.3193, 1.3225 and then 1.3277, with support holding at 1.3141, 1.3089 and 1.3057.

GBP/USD
Range: 1.5676 – 1.5735
Support: 1.5701
Resistance: 1.5749

Cable opened in Asia at 1.5693 after lows in New York of 1.5645, tracking euro weakness and also coming under some pressure from macro sellers from around midday as well as some model buying in euro-sterling. Some risk then re-emerged towards the end of the New York session as reports came in that Greece’s Samaras would be signing the austerity pledge which led a euro recovery and in turn prompted some short covering in cable back towards 1.5700. Asia saw a small dip to 1.5675 before comments from China PBOC’s Zhou supporting EU efforts led a risk rally to 1.5720. The move was however hampered by gains in euro-sterling from 0.8262 to 0.8379. There are offers in cable up at 1.5730-1.5750, with bids towards 1.5670-1.5680 and larger towards 1.5645-1.5650. Euro-sterling faces resistance at 0.8380 and 0.8400 with support at 0.8355-0.8360 and 0.8335-0.8340.

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