EUR USD at major level ahead of US elections

The EUR/USD has rallied sharply this week, thanks mainly to a slump in US dollar as opinion polls narrowed and uncertainty about the US elections grew after the FBI announced at the end of last week that it will launch an investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails. However, we believe that the dollar could make a comeback next week if, despite all the shenanigans, Hillary Clinton becomes the next US president. If that were to happen, the Fed will most likely raise interest rates in December before slowly tightening its policy further in the years ahead.

Indeed, incoming economic data from the US continues to improve at a steady pace, as indicated for example by the nonfarm payrolls report for the month of October. Although the headline jobs growth at 161 thousand was far from being great, we was sharp upward revisions to the previous months’ job gains and more importantly a stronger-than-expected rise in average earnings.

Obviously if Donald Trump scores a shock victory in the US presidential election race next week then the dollar could fall a lot further in the short-term outlook. That is the key risk in our opinion.

But from a purely technical perspective, the EUR/USD’s short-squeeze rally could come to an end next week as it tests or nears key resistance levels.

The world’s most heavily-traded currency pair has been making lower lows and lower highs inside its nearly two-year consolidation pattern. So, the medium-term trend is arguably still bearish. This week’s counter-trend rally to the prior key support, now resistance, at 1.1125 area could be where the sellers might step back in. Here we also have the 50-day moving average and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level converging with price.

If the sellers do not step in here then they may do so around the 1.1180/1200 area, where the 200-day average meets the bearish trend line and the 78.6% Fibonacci level. However if this area also breaks down then this bearish outlook will become invalid. Assuming that doesn’t happen, the next potential key support levels, or bearish objectives, to watch include 1.1065, 1.1040, 1.0935 and 1.0825/55. These levels were previously support and/or resistance.

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.