Daily Forex Technical Strategy Thurs 12 Sep
EUR/USD – 2nd leg of corrective rebound phase remains intact
click to enlarge chart
- The recent pull-back of 100 pips from its 05 Sep high of 1.1085 has stalled right at the 1.1000 key short-term pivotal support as per highlighted in our previous report (click here for a recap) ahead of ECB’s monetary policy meeting today.
- Short-term elements are still positive; and the past 4-day of slide can be considered as a “bullish flag” range configuration. Maintain bullish bias with 1.1000 remains as the key short-term pivotal support and added 1.1040 as the upside trigger level (upper limit of the “flag”) to reinforce another leg of potential corrective rebound to target the next resistance at 1.1095 follow by 1.1140/1170 next.
- However, a break with an hourly close below 1.1000 negates the bullish tone to see a further slide to retest 1.0925.
GBP/USD – 1.2245 remains the key support to watch
click to enlarge chart
- Maintain bullish bias in any dips above 1.2245 key short-term pivotal support and a break above 1.2380 reinforces another leg of potential corrective rebound to target the key resistance at 1.2510/2570 (upper boundary minor ascending channel from 03 Sep 2019 low & former major ascending support from 07 Oct 2016 low).
- However, a break with an hourly close below 1.2245 invalidates the corrective rebound scenario for a bearish reversal to retest 1.2000/1950 in the first step.
USD/JPY – Pull-back before another leg of corrective rebound
click to enlarge chart
- The pair has staged the expected push up towards the 108.45 short-term target/resistance in line with the on-going “risk on” environment as per highlighted in our previous report. It has printed a current intraday high of 108.10 in today’s Asian session.
- The hourly RSI oscillator is not coming close to an extreme overbought level but without any bearish divergence signal which favours a minor pull-back rather a bearish reversal of the on-going rebound from 26 Aug 2019 low. Maintain bullish bias in any dips above the adjusted key short-term pivotal support now at 107.10 for a further potential corrective rebound to target 108.45 before the key resistance of 109.30/50.
- However, a break with an hourly close below 107.10 invalidates the corrective rebound scenario for another round of choppy slide back towards 105.60 and even 104.65/40 next.
AUD/USD – 0.6875 remains the key resistance to watch
click to enlarge chart
- Interestingly, the pair has failed to make a clean break above the 0.6875 key short-term pivotal resistance as per highlighted in our previous report despite the on-going “risk on” environment.
- Elements are still advocating for a potential minor slide in the first step with a daily “Spinning Top” candlestick pattern formed at the end of yesterday, 11 Sep U.S. session. This observation indicates indecisiveness by the bulls to push prices higher.
- Maintain bearish bias and added 0.6845 as the downside trigger level where a break below it reinforces the potential slide to target 0.6810 and even 0.6760 next. However, a clearance with an hourly close above 0.6875 sees the continuation of the corrective rally towards 0.7000 next (upper boundary of the descending channel from 03 Dec 2018 high).
Charts are from eSignal
StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.
No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.
City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.
City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.
The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.
© City Index 2024